1. Comparing 2012 to the last 5 years isn't a good indicator of whether drought affects bird numbers, because as we all know, they've been pretty much in a decreasing trend for the past decade due to habitat problems (with kind of a plateau recently).
Exactly. I have yet to see any factual objective data that suggests drought is related to lower bird numbers.
We have had a decline in CRP acres over last 10 years to tune of 500 million +. How can one build any trends of weather impact when habitat impact is so huge?
GFP forecast recently off Winter snowfall amounts and April/May rainfall amounts and low temps. High amounts in either leads to a more down forecast but even that is very regional and highly subjective.
The speculators will say "oh we have drought in the state so numbers will be impacted". Really? That's like saying its been hot and cold and we need more rain and numbers have been impacted.
There's simply too many variables to second guess pheasants on. I was out doing habitat work the last few days and am seeing good bird numbers but have no idea how that relates to fall harvest game bag averages at season end.
While we can discuss weather impacts till the cows come home, realizing and accepting the 3 biggest impacts to bird numbers and doing something about it is more better.
1. CRP enrollment is down over 500,000 acres in the state of the high mark. Contact your state Rep and request 45 million acre Cap in the next Farm Bill. Current bill expires Sept 2018. Right now we are at 24 Million acre cap and if you walked into your FSA office and wanted to enroll some CRP you could not. I have never seen that even be possible!!
2. The Roundup Ready Corn and Soybean System has replaced small grains in our cropping systems and it started east of us a long time ago. GFP has graphs supporting this huge impact. Thank God there is a soil health movement that threatens to impact this positively.
3. $8 corn converted a ton of grass acres in the state to crop acres. 2 Million acres since 2007 I believe. Some of this are going back to grass. Item #1 and the increase in cap impacts this one.
sure, that is right Chris, but the title of the thread is "hot and dry weather"....not, "what can we do to increase bird numbers?". I am all for your goal of more birds...I do constructive things towards that end. but we have had an exceptionally hot and dry summer in much of pheasant country...I am interested in this topic, what guys are seeing out there, what the impact is/could be, etc...just a simple thread, kind of like we are standing around drinking a beer and bs'ng...hope I am not overreacting.
sure, that is right Chris, but the title of the thread is "hot and dry weather"....not, "what can we do to increase bird numbers?". I am all for your goal of more birds...I do constructive things towards that end. but we have had an exceptionally hot and dry summer in much of pheasant country...I am interested in this topic, what guys are seeing out there, what the impact is/could be, etc...just a simple thread, kind of like we are standing around drinking a beer and bs'ng...hope I am not overreacting.
well alrighty then!
Exactly. I have yet to see any factual objective data that suggests drought is related to lower bird numbers.
We have had a decline in CRP acres over last 10 years to tune of 500 million +. How can one build any trends of weather impact when habitat impact is so huge?
GFP forecast recently off Winter snowfall amounts and April/May rainfall amounts and low temps. High amounts in either leads to a more down forecast but even that is very regional and highly subjective.
The speculators will say "oh we have drought in the state so numbers will be impacted". Really? That's like saying its been hot and cold and we need more rain and numbers have been impacted.
There's simply too many variables to second guess pheasants on. I was out doing habitat work the last few days and am seeing good bird numbers but have no idea how that relates to fall harvest game bag averages at season end.
Well the onlyest thing to do is decrease the shotshell budget and increase the beer