benelli-banger
Well-known member
he did have 5 or 6 groups that did not show up....that factors in to overall bird numbers....just checked...8 groups cancelled...
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how did ugude's camps do?
- Thread starter benelli-banger
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he did have 5 or 6 groups that did not show up....that factors in to overall bird numbers....just checked...8 groups cancelled...
benelli-banger
Well-known member
UGUIDE has written a "conclusion to the 2017 season"...look on his website...draw your own conclusions...
Well he can't seem to admit that he was wrong on pheasant numbers last
Year.And all though his numbers matched what decline was stated by
Fish and game he still thinks that has nothing to do with his camps
Not Cool.
benelli-banger
Well-known member
interesting...seems to me he was singing very different tunes 5-6 months ago...i don't know much about farming, but if "round up ready corn"(?) farming practice is so detrimental, it would probably effect bird #'s in most areas...I know for a fact that there were some very good areas in the SE quarter of south dakota this fall...I am sure most farmers operate pretty much the same way in SD...I have a contact that co-owns about 3,000 acres that is spread across a 20 mile range in SE SD...he keeps very detailed records of the hunts that they put on...they had a better year this year than last year, fwiw...I feel like the areas I hunt were on par, or even better, than last year, too...maybe ag practices are a big deal...the birds need habitat, food, water, and hopefully conducive weather for nesting, hatching, wintering, etc...in a perfect world the crops would be "dirtier" than they are now...infested with some weeds or other vegetation...but that isn't the case, and hasn't been the case for quite a while from what I have seen...as i have said many times before, UGUIDE is doing a good thing, providing a great service, and I hope he is successful...and that the interactions he has with us on this board are straightforward...
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A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
I agree with UGuide that the GFP’s brood count survey report is, at best, an indicator of what pheasant numbers might be. This past season, their findings just happened to parallel reality much closer than usual. He concedes several times in his report, as the GFP predicted, that the drought impacted pheasant numbers significantly, including at his camps. But right off the bat, when discussing forecasts, he says that although his camps’ harvests followed GFP predictions, the predictions are vastly different from reality at his camps, and any close correlation is merely coincidental. Thoroughly baffled. Maybe that’s his intent. 
As a out of state hunter GDP report is very important to me to decide where
To go.I can see if report stated a 5 or 10% drop in brood count that would
Not be a major indicator of pheasant numbers or Uguides camps.But a 40%
Drop is an indicator of a problem.My problem last year was more of huntable public areas than Bird count.Hunted kansas last year great habitat
Less birds even with 40% down S Dakota is still got more birds
To go.I can see if report stated a 5 or 10% drop in brood count that would
Not be a major indicator of pheasant numbers or Uguides camps.But a 40%
Drop is an indicator of a problem.My problem last year was more of huntable public areas than Bird count.Hunted kansas last year great habitat
Less birds even with 40% down S Dakota is still got more birds
benelli-banger
Well-known member
I agree with UGuide that the GFP’s brood count survey report is, at best, an indicator of what pheasant numbers might be. This past season, their findings just happened to parallel reality much closer than usual. He concedes several times in his report, as the GFP predicted, that the drought impacted pheasant numbers significantly, including at his camps. But right off the bat, when discussing forecasts, he says that although his camps’ harvests followed GFP predictions, the predictions are vastly different from reality at his camps, and any close correlation is merely coincidental. Thoroughly baffled. Maybe that’s his intent.
If you read carefully to his disclaimers on his website, he throws out qualifiers like "I can't vouch for how hard my client's hunt, how good they are at shooting, if their dogs are worth a crap", etc (very crude paraphrasing on my part)...that is true for all of us who trudge into the hinterlands after roosters. I will admit, the high bird #'s of 10+ years ago REALLY masked my mediocre shooting...we never came out of the field without our limits...now, there are days when it comes down to that last ten minutes of legal shooting time...or, that last flush that presents itself. I realized very clearly that my shooting goes WAY down after i have been walking, especially in tough cover, for an hour or more...I am pretty good for that first 30 or 45 minutes of each walk...after that, I get a bit iffy...is it mental? physical? both? probably both!
I assume that most guys UGUIDE attracts are fairly serious hunters...probably have at least a dog per every two hunters, maybe more...probably take their shooting somewhat seriously...etc...again, good concept, competent operator, hope he enrolls a few more landowner partners in the next year or two...somewhere around Chamberlain or Winner or Gregory would help him to diversify geographically...but landowners out there may not want to share the $...they probably have an easy time getting hunters....maybe not, who knows????
I just went back and reread his "conclusions" from the "season overview" he just wrote about a week or two ago...in it, he talks about the drought, how it impacted insect production, the fact that chicks rely on insects for the first few weeks of their lives, and that they just can't survive or overcome those conditions...seems to me there was JUST a bit of this being debated on this forum back in July, maybe August as well...he also talks about how it would be "unwise to fire your habitat manager (him!) at this point", as the lack of birds is out of that person's control, assuming that there was good habitat, or something to that effect...I agree...he is talking to his clients, which is perfectly logical...
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As a guy that is in the business and who used to be with U guide, it is my opinion that there is a big difference in hunters. Most have some dogs but not all. I won't go into all aspects of that. I asked every group that came here what I could have done different? I did not get any responses, not even buy some birds. I have several that have rebooked for next year because they liked the habitat. If my clients fire their habitat manager they won't have this place as an option in the future because it will be cattle habitat instead.
benelli-banger
Well-known member
You are very correct...there is a big difference in hunters. I host about 4-6 groups in an average season...not for profit, just friends, friends of friends, etc...I reduced the number of groups starting in 2018...too much work with a few of the groups--no dogs/not enough dogs/not enough good dogs...poor shooting on a consistent basis...can't/won't follow instructions....overall, all are good guys...it just became a burden, not enough fun...I just LOVE hunting by myself or one other guy...just head off in opposite directions and meet back up in 90 or 120 minutes, whatever....just a GLORIOUS way to hunt! I do these groups because it benefits a local farmer who provides us nice lodging and some pretty good ground to hunt...and I do enjoy most of the hunts I put on...3-5 other guys who have decent dogs, are good shots, understand what we are doing with things like wind, cover configurations, flanking, blocking, etc. Luckily safety has not been an issue...many of the guys who are fairly new almost are too reluctant to shoot, even at safe shots...that's OK. Over the past 20+ years I have hosted at least 70 hunters or more...as a side note, 4 have taken their lives...true...that has been in the past 10 years....again, just some random trivia. By the way, I am an average shot, I walk too fast, my dogs are not always obedient (they sometimes range too far--my fault), I drink too much on occasion, and am not always the model host. Enough said. Not perfect...
A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
I get that out of staters many times have nothing else to go on other than the GFP report, which sometimes somewhat follows actual bird numbers & subsequent hunter success rates. Just know that it frequently has very little CLOSE correlation to either of those things. Knowing this, I read the report every year & may even overanalyze it (because my brain enjoys that sort of thing). But I take it with a grain of salt because it just isn’t very meaningful.
Case in point (for both the reports’ lack of value & my overanalyzing them): I hunt public land basically in a triangle between 3 “city areas” evaluated annually in the reports – Mitchell, Sioux Falls & Brookings – not exactly pheasant central. Based on the number of routes surveyed & analyzed each year in each area, it’s fairly easy to calculate the pheasants per mile (ppm) I might expect in my hunting areas. This yields values of 5.23 ppm in 2008 & 1.52 ppm in 2017. So, a 71% decrease in bird numbers during that time. This is absolutely NOT what I’ve seen while hunting this territory. Nor do my experiences necessarily follow the reported short-term up ticks & down ticks within those 9 years. I get out after pheasants more than most & feel like at the end of a given season, I’ve got a pretty good feel for bird numbers & comparison to the previous year.
Also, if you rank the 12 east river city areas over the last 10 reports, Chamberlain has been #1 each year and Pierre #2. The other areas consistently rank about the same too. For example, Sisseton has been 9 to 12 (usually 12) each year. Aberdeen has been 6 or 7 each year. Mobridge is usually 3 or 4 (5 once). While the numbers of ppm reported can change drastically from year to year, the relative birdiness of a particular area is pretty constant. There really aren’t even any real noticeable up or down trends in ranking. Just because the reports said from 2013 to 2015, the Yankton area tripled its ppm and jumped from #11 to #8 briefly does NOT mean hunters in that area enjoyed significantly greater success, or even saw more pheasants than usual.
Here’s basically all anyone needs to know. You can copy this down or print it out & never have to read another brood count survey report. These are the average rankings (relative birdiness) for the 12 east river city areas, which essentially won’t change unless somehow the average habitat in an area changes considerably:
Chamberlain – 1
Pierre – 2
Winner – 3.5
Mobridge – 3.7
Huron – 5.2
Mitchell – 5.3
Aberdeen – 6.8
Watertown – 8.4
Brookings – 9.2
Sioux Falls – 9.7
Yankton – 10.3
Sisseton – 11.3
Anyway, in my opinion, your hunts from one year to the next won’t be impacted by anything in the reports, unless you move to an area of considerably different long-term relative birdiness (which, as I’ve said, remain fairly constant on their own).
That said, it’s obviously fun thinking about where roosters might be. And for that reason alone (because realistically, that’s about the only benefit they offer)……I look forward to the report every year too.
benelli-banger
Well-known member
good post...my thoughts on the matter are as follows: GFP drives 110, 30 mile routes to produce their report. If habitat drops by a bunch on a particular route, so, too will birds per mile that are observed...however, existing cover may even experience an increase in birds, but the overall report for that survey route would reflect a drop in bird #'s if habitat dropped by a bunch, which we know did happen over the past 7+ years. As others have said, habitat matters a lot, weather does matter a lot, especially the critical period from about 5/20-7/1, +/-. I watch the "current climate summary maps" like a hawk during June...I am always watching the weather on the computer during that time of year...I talk to about 6 farmers pretty frequently in the summer/late summer to see what they have to say. Back to the GFP survey, there were about 15 survey routes this year that posted INCREASES vs. 2016...I shot a lot of this years birds this past season...we evidently had a decent hatch....
A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
Yes...precisely