Ukraine-Russia war

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Redmoose

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Since Russia and Ukraine produce 113 million mt of wheat and the price of crude oil over $100 barrel. How much pressure will there be on US and Canada to plant more wheat and corn. How much CRP are we going to lose.
 
Hard to say what this will all do with re-enrollments. There is some interesting things going on with carbon credits looking down the road a couple of years. From a financial standpoint CRP is about 4 times more valuable in this area then no till crop land and can be paid while receiving CRP payments. This could end up being a very good thing to push marginal land to CRP and thus good for the birds in the long run. Fingers crossed.
 
A friend who is a pretty efficient farmer and I discussed this. He said there isn't enough wheat seed available to make a big difference. Some will plant more corn then beans as fertilizer costs , effected by the war, will be high for growing corn.
 
with the lack of fertilizer, wheat will take over. then corn will go to export since we will all be driving electric cars, trucks, combines and such, lol.
we wont need ethanol!
 
Wheat looks great in our area of ks and more corn is going in than I can recall in many years. With the price being so high it works even with stupid high inputs. It might not be quite as bad as the media makes it, if you can believe that 🤭

There's also a lot of grain still in storage that never gets brought up.
 
There is more money in corn. Hybrid variations grow in areas that didn't produce before. I find this troubling as I believe wheat is better for the whole ecosystem/environment.
 
The planting intentions report seems to indicate that notably less corn will be planted in 2022 due to the far higher costs/acre for corn. My former farm loan clients that I talk to in this area tend to corroborate this thinking. BUT it's too early to get a good idea of what's going in the ground, at least here--weather is wet and cold, fall tillage was not done in a lot of fields I see so there's work to be done before crops are actually planted. It's a very uncertain ag season so far.
 
Talked to a farmer in SD this morning and spring wheat is going in the ground as I type this. This was planned spring wheat before all the Russian stuff happened.
 
I was visiting with an agronomist at a local elevator (North Central ND) last night. Corn, soybeans and wheat are going in. Corn has the high front end investment because of the fertilizer needed but the return is worth it with high prices. Soybeans grow successfully without the investment in N fertilizer so we can expect a lot of beans grown in our area. Wheat should see an increase in planting as well for obvious reasons.
 
There will be many acres planted. Because I managed to pick up more pasture I am putting old tired CRP and alfalfa back into crop production. Beans and wheat will work for me, my son will plant corn, beans, and wheat. Still have 100 acres of CRP plus 80 acres of full season cover crops for wildlife. Plus I now have1700 acres of native prairie with some moisture to work with. It could be a good year.
 
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Weimdogman said:
There is more money in corn. Hybrid variations grow in areas that didn't produce before. I find this troubling as I believe wheat is better for the whole ecosystem/environment.
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more money in corn, if you can find the fertilizer to grow, especially in poor soil.
 
haymaker said:
There will be many acres planted. Because I managed to pick up more pasture I am putting old tired CRP and alfalfa back into crop production. Beans and wheat will work for me, my son will plant corn, beans, and wheat. Still have 100 acres of CRP plus 80 acres of full season cover crops for wildlife. Plus I now have1700 acres of native prairie with some moisture to work with. It could be a good year.
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I am sure you will be a good steward of that pasture ground. I like the way you operate. I do hope you get more alfalfa in as I believe it is the best cash crop for wildlife.

As a aside , what does hemp look like as a cash crop in relation to wildlife?
 
I'm guessing we will see more beans planted and less corn because of the unavailability of fertilizer and the planting costs for corn. Those sunk costs up front are a big risk. Having a bad year with fertilizer running around $250/ac and non-land prices to plant running over $650/ac for corn, i have to imagine lots of farmers will be planting less cash intensive crops.

My guys in WI planted some peas last year. Haven't talked to them but I bet they plant them again as well as wheat, oats and more beans. Not super farm ground so input costs are pretty high, especially for fertilizer.

Two of my renters have big dairy operations so their fertilizer costs are nearly zero. I suspect they will plant corn everywhere they can. The others not so much.
 
Weimdogman said:
I am sure you will be a good steward of that pasture ground. I like the way you operate. I do hope you get more alfalfa in as I believe it is the best cash crop for wildlife.

As a aside , what does hemp look like as a cash crop in relation to wildlife?
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Makes them lazy and they eat a lot of junk food
 
Weimdogman said:
I am sure you will be a good steward of that pasture ground. I like the way you operate. I do hope you get more alfalfa in as I believe it is the best cash crop for wildlife.

As a aside , what does hemp look like as a cash crop in relation to wildlife?
Click to expand...
I do have other alfalfa. I do not consider it a ca.sh crop as we feed it rather than sell it. I buy hay rather than sell it as I want to import nutrients and organic matter. It greatly reduces the need for commercial fertilizer which seems to be a big deal now.
 
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