Stock Market

[KSnative]

there is no doubt that the Fed has tremendous influence regarding liquidity and their policies have great influence over all markets...they finished their last tightening in latter 2018, and the market sold off 20% in the 4th quarter of that year...created a buying opportunity, IMO...bottomed on 12/24/18, if I recall correctly...I believe that the private sector will continue to provide the goods and services that we consume, and investors who own the private sector will receive returns that vary a great deal...nothing new...always been that way...could easily happen that returns go flat or decrease for extended periods of time...nothing new. Dividends will still get paid. I can cash and spend those checks. I plan very conservatively, and advise others to as well. Just my .02.

The private sector will not be facilitated by the weight of new regs and taxes - but will still perform.

However, we are talking about stocks. Which no longer have much to do with private sector performance. P/E ratios prove this quite convincingly, to me at least. It is no longer about current or projected earnings, much.

 

[benelli-banger]

I've been retired for some time. My annual income is multiples of anything I ever thought I could earn in year, from a balanced variety of sources.

Productive hard assets are always a good alternative. Dwindling value cash equivalents where good business values aren't immediately available - that's what let me take advantage of massive buy alternatives when commodity prices bottomed out.

Capital gain tax increases are not unlikely to become a major market factor sooner, not later. Great Depression began with, I think, about a 20% drop in stock prices in a single day. That may be looking pretty good before we ring in 2022! Hope I'm wrong - maybe you CAN tax and spend your way to prosperity, while suppressing the most economically viable forms of energy production.

I never bought the "you have to vote for us because you have no other real choice" - same on "investments".

Thanks for the reply, but you didn't answer the question I posed about where your dollars are invested...or maybe you did, and I didn't follow. either way, best of luck to you, hope you're getting your fill of hunting in....

 

[benelli-banger]

The good news is that it has never been easier to invest in whatever manner one wants...if one doesn’t have faith or confidence in the broad economy, here or abroad, one can choose what sectors or industries that one does have confidence in...I know that markets will change, will fluctuate, will get awful and scary at times. But until I see something better, I will keep betting on the USA...change, innovation, creative destruction, etc, have been our hallmarks for almost 250 years...hell of an experiment!!!

 

[KSnative]

The good news is that it has never been easier to invest in whatever manner one wants...if one doesn’t have faith or confidence in the broad economy, here or abroad, one can choose what sectors or industries that one does have confidence in...I know that markets will change, will fluctuate, will get awful and scary at times. But until I see something better, I will keep betting on the USA...change, innovation, creative destruction, etc, have been our hallmarks for almost 250 years...hell of an experiment!!!

I, too, hope our incredible country can withstand its government! Odds aren't increasing, though. IMHO. NOT giving up - but not closing my eyes and cheering, either.

 

[KSnative]

Thanks for the reply, but you didn't answer the question I posed about where your dollars are invested...or maybe you did, and I didn't follow. either way, best of luck to you, hope you're getting your fill of hunting in....

Thanks! My money comes from every sector, and is invested similarly. But this may be the year I pull out of the stock market completely. Governmental policies (especially cap gains) will determine that - not economic fundamentals.

 

[benelli-banger]

Without getting overly cryptic or conspiratorial, I do see the ever-bifurcating populace as a reality...the middle class has been shrinking, for sure...the lower and lower middle class will be catered to, they have, and will have, the political leverage...large voting block. IMO, the tax code will be continue to be very generous for those income groups...the government will squeeze the wealthy...look whose getting this current stimulus payment...couples making up to 150k...tax rates will go up for the high income folks..400k and up? That’s taxable income, not gross...I don’t fear much, like you said, just pay attention...

 

[KSnative]

Without getting overly cryptic or conspiratorial, I do see the ever-bifurcating populace as a reality...the middle class has been shrinking, for sure...the lower and lower middle class will be catered to, they have, and will have, the political leverage...large voting block. IMO, the tax code will be continue to be very generous for those income groups...the government will squeeze the wealthy...look whose getting this current stimulus payment...couples making up to 150k...tax rates will go up for the high income folks..400k and up? That’s taxable income, not gross...I don’t fear much, like you said, just pay attention...

Sorry, not trying to be argumentative but no sir, wealthy will always have ways to avoid (not evade) higher taxes and the current regime, both sides of the aisle, are fully on board with that. Rhetoric is one thing; reality another.

Look who Wall Street backed. There's a reason for that.

 

[webguy]

You nailed it.
Don't mean to stretch my tether but have to ask, do you do this for a living? Asking for a friend.

Negative. I'm a self taught nerd in pretty much all areas of life. It doesn't necessarily make me smart, I just have a different thought process and created my own hybrid strategy. One of my customers used to work for EF Hutton and created his own trading platform/strategy based on Fibonacci and a few other hybrid models. That was a fun few hours talking to him on what he knows. I'm 43, I enjoy talking to smart people, older generations and people who invoke thought. Young people typically bore the crap out of me and one's that don't, really surprise me. By the way, have you seen Madison Cawthorn from North Carolina? What a well spoken young gent.

 

[KSnative]

Negative. I'm a self taught nerd in pretty much all areas of life. It doesn't necessarily make me smart, I just have a different thought process and created my own hybrid strategy. One of my customers used to work for EF Hutton and created his own trading platform/strategy based on Fibonacci and a few other hybrid models. That was a fun few hours talking to him on what he knows. I'm 43, I enjoy talking to smart people, older generations and people who invoke thought. Young people typically bore the crap out of me and one's that don't, really surprise me. By the way, have you seen Madison Cawthorn from North Carolina? What a well spoken young gent.

I haven't just seen him, I've talked with him. Some really bad stuff coming out on him though. E.g., he allegedly once asked a young lady who was sitting on his lap to kiss him. Then her hair got caught in his wheelchair when she decided to bail. Not quite sure how the mechanics on that evolved but I guess you'd have to use your imagination. Alsok, a "me too'er", after driving with him to a remote field, was shocked to learn that he was interested in more than her mental attributes. Rough stuff. Of course, by this time he was already wheelchair bound so all she really needed to do was stroll away, but as a college student such mundane things as evasive tactics were perhaps just not in her skill bank.

I suggested that he arm his wheelchair before reporting for duty. What are they going to do - take his chair away? Turns out he should have paid more attention to that one.

Not sure who would ever want to run for office if you aren't in solid with the team that owns the media. Not me.

 

[Haretrigger]

Well, don't leave out the letter signed by 150 students from a college he attended that accused him of being a sex predator.
Well spoken he might be....well mannered, that seems to be another story.
Not that it matters to the party that claims all the moral high ground and "family values"...also known as the pussy grabber party...
Some of the creepiest frigging perverts I have met clothed themselves in holier than now Christian fundamentalism.
Go figure...
Fire up those flame throwers

 

[benelli-banger]

Good luck to all who are trying their best...keep at it, do what you know, what you feel comfortable with...lots of naysayers out there, lots of paranoid people out there...be diversified, have some plans in place in case things go haywire for a while...but we'll get back on track if things do derail temporarily...this is a unique political/economic experiment...working fairly well, all things considered!!

 

[Haretrigger]

Google Patrick Henry college...it's a small Christian college. The letter spells out pretty clearly what/who they were are dealing with.
No frigging way does this creep deserve a seat in the house of representatives.
Maybe it's just me...but guys that abuse women...hit on other guys wives/ girlfriends, and don't comprehend basic civility deserve one giant kick in the balls.

 

[KSnative]

Well, don't leave out the letter signed by 150 students from a college he attended that accused him of being a sex predator.
Well spoken he might be....well mannered, that seems to be another story.
Not that it matters to the party that claims all the moral high ground and "family values"...also known as the pussy grabber party...
Some of the creepiest frigging perverts I have met clothed themselves in holier than now Christian fundamentalism.
Go figure...
Fire up those flame throwers

You sure left a lot of stuff off. You should at least make the effort to google CNN a bit more. He's a Nazi, too (visited Germany as a tourist). And you heard if here first - he's a white supremacist too. You bet - drove a white Dodge, when he knew many other color choices were available. And lets face it - a DODGE???? C'mon man. You know who drives those things.

You are aware that many of the signatories weren't even AT Patrick Henry during the short time that Cawhorn was - right? Never mind, actually met the man themselves?

I don't know any saints - but the least saintly of all are those who must make themselves feel good, or "in" by disparaging others who they have never even met, much less talked with. Especially those who have overcome tremendous personal pain and setbacks to get where they are. I'm just glad there isn't any one like that here.

 

[Haretrigger]

Ok....back on track..
BB...sounds like you have a pretty solid feel for investing..
I thought I was starting to get a handle on it.....pre pandemic..
Now...I don't know....fundamentals are so out of whack and monetary forces that are in play really make me scratch my head.
Inflation is already here in a ginormous way....I spend way too much time looking at used 4x4's on craigslist....prices on wore out pieces of junk are thru the roof.....property? Same frigging thing in all the western states....totally batshit crazy prices. Same goes for stocks......John Deere. Roughly $350 a share...? Wf.

I am at an age where the risk is meaningful.....no way I can go back to working 100 hour weeks to build up a nest egg..
At present, even though I'm losing money, I'm staying pretty heavy in cash......doesn't feel right, but I got a touch of brain freeze going on......
Best money advice I ever got was from an old firefighter.......told me "it's not how you make it...it's how you spend it"
Been debt free both in business and personal for 20 years, thanks in part to that advice

 

[Haretrigger]

Native...let me real clear here
GO FUCK YOURSELF

 

[benelli-banger]

Ok....back on track..
BB...sounds like you have a pretty solid feel for investing..
I thought I was starting to get a handle on it.....pre pandemic..
Now...I don't know....fundamentals are so out of whack and monetary forces that are in play really make me scratch my head.
Inflation is already here in a ginormous way....I spend way too much time looking at used 4x4's on craigslist....prices on wore out pieces of junk are thru the roof.....property? Same frigging thing in all the western states....totally batshit crazy prices. Same goes for stocks......John Deere. Roughly $350 a share...? Wf.

I am at an age where the risk is meaningful.....no way I can go back to working 100 hour weeks to build up a nest egg..
At present, even though I'm losing money, I'm staying pretty heavy in cash......doesn't feel right, but I got a touch of brain freeze going on......
Best money advice I ever got was from an old firefighter.......told me "it's not how you make it...it's how you spend it"
Been debt free both in business and personal for 20 years, thanks in part to that advice

For sure...what you spend is the big factor. Holding cash is ok...bonds are taking a hit due to rates rising on Treasuries, which are anticipating inflation and the Fed eventually raising short rates once they feel we’re at full employment. Value stocks have lagged a lot over the past several years+...growth/tech feels quite rich to me...dividends in the 2.5-3%+ range are appealing... “dividend aristocrats” are a good starting point if you are inclined to invest some in equities...as always, there’s risk out there...but lots of $ looking for a home, too...I think a decent correction would be healthy, and would probably get bid right back up within a few months...

 

[Chestle]

Not that it matters to the party that claims all the moral high ground and "family values"...also known as the pussy grabber party...
Some of the creepiest frigging perverts I have met clothed themselves in holier than now Christian fundamentalism.
Go figure...
Fire up those flame throwers..

8 Women Have Accused Joe Biden Of Sexual Misconduct, Inappropriate Touching | The Daily Wire

"Former Vice President and presumptive 2020 Democratic presidential nominee Joe Biden has been accused of sexual misconduct and inappropriate touching by at least eight women, most recently by Alexandra Tara Reade, a former aide in Biden’s Senate office in the early 1990s, who claims Biden sexually assaulted her — a claim now substantiated by several contemporaneous accounts."

,,,Maybe it's just me...but guys that abuse women...hit on other guys wives/ girlfriends, and don't comprehend basic civility deserve one giant kick in the balls.

Yes, indeed. I see your point.

Now back to our regularly scheduled program.

Since the big question to me is what's the dollar going to be worth as we keep creating imaginary trillions, I've been looking at the cryptocurrency ETFs. Short term plays, mostly. Just kinda fooling around with it.

 

[Haretrigger]

Question....
Do you think we are in a new paradigm ? I.E., the rules of the road for investing over many decades have been fundamentally altered?
Several factors that weigh on my mind are:
1) there are now fewer than ever companies to invest in.
2) stock buybacks crowds out investment....imo, we should go back to an earlier period where stock buyback was not an accepted practice and maybe even illegal?
3) trading has been fundamentally altered thru algorithisms doing the work, along with digital participation at all levels.
4)concentration of the wealth in an incredibly small portion of the population, who wield outsized influence by a factor of ??? on the very policies that affect that wealth
5) related to # 4...look at how quickly the Amazon's of the world buy up a new company that could prove to offer competition.
6) the present flood of money created out of thin air, coupled with almost a decade of quantitative easing by the fed..

I could go on, but you get the idea.....so how much should we base a decision today, on historical methodology ??
At earlier times, in the 20th century, major legislation was created to deal with these types of questions....such as significant anti trust laws...labor laws, etc.
Right now, it looks like a free for all to me, and I don't see anything sane coming out of our political process.....

 

[Haretrigger]

Chestle..
Would have been ok with me if Clinton had got tossed from office....he definitely qualified for a kick to the balls..
Don't even get me started on his enabler....Hillary

 

[benelli-banger]

Tech/growth has been getting beat up a decent bit, as I think they should; value stocks are performing pretty well...classic rotation, probably overdue. I’m not qualified to comment on most of your questions, but I know greed/fear is alive and well, and that is what makes a market. I don’t think things are terribly different...stocks will go up and down...rates are rising, high p/e stocks are dropping...that is what happens. The paradigm hasn’t changed...irrational exuberance has happened before, it will happen again if it isn’t happening now!!