Stock Market

Haretrigger said:
Question....
Do you think we are in a new paradigm ? I.E., the rules of the road for investing over many decades have been fundamentally altered?
Several factors that weigh on my mind are:
1) there are now fewer than ever companies to invest in.
2) stock buybacks crowds out investment....imo, we should go back to an earlier period where stock buyback was not an accepted practice and maybe even illegal?
3) trading has been fundamentally altered thru algorithisms doing the work, along with digital participation at all levels.
4)concentration of the wealth in an incredibly small portion of the population, who wield outsized influence by a factor of ??? on the very policies that affect that wealth
5) related to # 4...look at how quickly the Amazon's of the world buy up a new company that could prove to offer competition.
6) the present flood of money created out of thin air, coupled with almost a decade of quantitative easing by the fed..

I could go on, but you get the idea.....so how much should we base a decision today, on historical methodology ??
At earlier times, in the 20th century, major legislation was created to deal with these types of questions....such as significant anti trust laws...labor laws, etc.
Right now, it looks like a free for all to me, and I don't see anything sane coming out of our political process.....
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Most of your questions/concerns are a bullish case for stocks...fewer companies, stock buybacks, the rich wanting to stack the odds in their favor, etc...
 
There are few options for people to invest in...interest rates are very low...most people aren’t interested in buying/managing real estate or farm land or running a business...what are their options? Publicly traded securities offer lots of options. Back to earlier question: when the 10 year T note was yielding .50%, valuations were different on high p/e stocks vs today, at 1.6%....might explain why the nasdaq 100 is down 11% from its high...
 
BB,
Hmmmm...if you are not qualified, what the he'll does that make me ??
A couple of things to note....please indulge me
1) when I look at almost any stocks long term chart....20 to 40 years, I see stock after stock almost flatlined up until the 1990's, then they take off like a rocket and some have massive ups and downs.

2) do you think this could be why we now talk about billionaires like we used to talk about millionaires?
Wonder how long before we start talking about trillionairs......

It's just an observation and probably doesn't mean diddly
 
Agree BB,
I read an interesting piece by the Cramer guy from mad money....
When he was a young rookie at one of the trading houses, he couldn't understand why people were paying as much as the were for stocks.
He hit up an older(grumpier) trader for an explanation and got this simple answer......."more buyers than sellers"
Pretty much sums up our current environment
 
If you go back in time, 50 years, 100 years,etc, large cap stocks have averaged about 10%, small caps even better than that...that’s what the charts tend to look like over time...we’re talking about owning the whole market, not trying to cherry pick specific industries...every dog tends to have its day...own the whole market, and go live your life...
 
Periods of low interest rates and low inflation oftentimes are accompanied by high p/e’s...but not forever! Stocks that have long and strong histories of paying/raising their dividends tend to get rewarded over time...and if not, at least you’re getting paid while you wait...i.e., the dividend aristocrats...
 
Are you making any guesses/assumptions on how interest rates are going to shake out over the next few months to 2 years?
Hard to imagine that inflation will behave itself, given the amount of liquidity that has been created by fiat.

In a rising interest rate environment, do you still recommend dividend aristocrats...
Seems like conventional wisdom that I see discussed are utilities and consumer goods type stocks under that scenario.HE looks interesting.....short of a major psunami...
 
rates will be rising...hard for them not to...bond rates have been rising a lot over the past few months...like I said, 10 year T Note has risen from .50% 6 months ago to 1.6% now...big move...Fed will start raising short rates in the next 12-24 months...they have telegraphed that they are comfortable with inflation testing the upper limits of their "comfort range"...meaning 2%+....utilities along with other income producing securities usually drop in value with rising rates...happening now...but yes, owning a diversified portfolio of stocks that pay decent dividends from a broad spectrum of industries--financials, health care, consumer stocks, energy, industrials, etc, is a good long-term play, IMO...I'm a fan of owning a broad based index fund...Wilshire 5000, S & P 500, DJIA, etc...keeping costs low is a good thing, beauty of indexing...
 
Good to know on utilities...thanks for that..
I do have a financial advisor and let him manage about 1/2 of my investments.. I'm doing the other 1/2 sort of by hook and crook....am using td ameritrade(shwaab) for my platform and being pretty conservative. Managing around 7% annually over the past 4 years....and thats keeping 60% in cash....just don't have the cajones to go all in.....like I said earlier...no frigging way I'm going back to 100 hour workweeks..

I can buy ETF's just as easily as individual stocks, but have been stymied by the incredibly high prices I'm seeing......Mostly what I have looked at are the vanguard funds...most are priced at all time highs and I can't pull the trigger on that kind of pricing......
I know now I should have stuck X$$ In some of those funds a year ago......coulda, woulda, shoulda
 
Imagine the 15-20 years that led up to the beginning of the bull market that began in august of ‘82...many assassinations in the ‘60’s, Vietnam, Arab oil embargo in the early ‘70’s, terrible bear market of ‘73-74, watergate/Nixon resignation, rising inflation of the late ‘70’s, followed by Paul Volcker and the Fed raising short rates to about 20% to strangle inflation...30 year T bonds were paying 16%+!!!!!! Then began one of the greatest bull markets in history....’82-2000....about 18% annualized returns on the s & p 500..., and we had the crash of ‘87 in there! 23% drop in one day! 10/19/87...had my first interview at a financial firm that day!!!..the market basically went up, with some volatility here and there, until early 2000...then 3 years of the bear...a drop of 55%+....then a new high in oct of 2007...then, the bear reappeared, a 60% drop by 3/09....new bull market....12 years later, here we are...the s & p 500 rises from 666 to about 3800 today....big move, punctuated by the brief 40% drop last spring/summer...markets go up and down, what more can one say???? Hard to envision much of an upside surprise from here...but who knows??? Be diversified!!! Cash, cd’s/bonds, real estate, equities....homes/vacation homes doing well as of late...be diversified, enjoy your life!!!!
 
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Yes, prices are pretty high...VYM, VIG, VTI are some I like...not saying jump in all at once...some $ each month for a year? Yes, my advice. Over time, we have a 20% correction on average every few years...part of the deal...
 
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You are sounding like my advisor....in a good way
He pretty much layed it on the line that there was no way my wife and I can spend our way out of our investments....short of losing our minds and doing something crazy....which is not us
Yes, his refrain was to just go have fun and enjoy life......he cannot understand why I feel the need to keep my business going and still work....lol
I can't really figure it out either....I consider myself financially insecure I guess...and I do like to work....
Towards your point though....I just sent off a deposit for a new gwp pup...will head to montana in mid april to get her and should be bagging ptarmigan over her in aug/sept...then on to chukar, pheasant, quail.....good times a comin...
 
Haretrigger said:
Chestle..
Would have been ok with me if Clinton had got tossed from office....he definitely qualified
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What about Biden? 8 women accused him. Cuomo? The point is that it isn’t just one particular party or any party.

The very rich, the very powerful and the very rich and powerful all think they are above mere mortals. They know the rules don’t apply to them. They know they can do anything they want without fear of repercussions.
 
Much truth in what Chestle says, of course but still......Clinton was impeached, lost his law license, paid huge civil settlements and suffered public embarrassment (to the extent the man was capable of personal shame). Worst of all, Hillary was really mad - and no way a man who shares a room with that comes away unscathed. Enough? Don't know, but he didn't get off as Scot free as it seems. Cuomo is toast, but just too arrogant and entitled and accustomed to preferential treatment to realize it yet. Biden - I think he'd get off on something like "not guilty by reason of insanity". I honest to gosh don't think the man knows there is anything wrong with the things he does.

Nothing Cawthorn is (vaguely) described as having done, as a newly minted paraplegic, comes anywhere near any of that nor did he wield any power over any of them - they were peers. From what I can see in fact, little more than a political hit, and a lust for attention on the part of some. He has not, to my knowledge, been accused of any physical abuse. "Thinking back, I don't know why but I just felt uncomfortable" is about as bad as it gets. And "everyone knew about him" (it is a very small school) - so then why'd you take a solo run to the woods with him, exactly? I invite any real evidence whatsoever to the contrary.

These people do a real disservice to women (like those Clinton and Biden left in their wakes) who were genuinely harmed. Real molestation can be described a lot more specifically, and these people are not holding back out of consideration for the crippled boy (which just may be what actually made them "feel uncomfortable"). And that is its own form of bigotry.
 
Chestle,
Agree 100% .doesn't matter to me what party they wrap themselves in....looks like Cuomo has a major hole that he has dug for himself and it doesn't look like he will get much or any of a pass from ny democrats. He's dead meat
As far as Biden goes, I'm not sure. I watched the interview with the gal you mentioned earlier....didn't cut it for me. I didn't find her believable.
I only mentioned clinton, because I found those women very believable.
I brought up political affiliation due to my perception of hypocracy coming from the republican party....although I have to give the Nodak legislatures some credit.....they just booted the type of person we are talking about to the curb.
Are democrats hypocrites as well ? Damn straight they are......just not to the level of idolizing a self confessed pussy grabber that has accusations of rape in court as we speak... If Biden had that kind of shit going on , rest assured I would want to see him receive proper punishment.
I spent 4 months as a grand jury foreman in a U.S. district court hearing and voting on felony indictments every friday. 2 things stood out..1 was the high rate of felony drunk driving...the other? felony molestation of children...It was beyond my comprehension that there was so much sexual abuse of children going on.
I take my earlier statement back....rather than a kick to the balls...I say cut em off, irrespective of their voter registration
Seems I recall Trump saying nice things about Epstein...something along the lines of liking em young and basically...that was cool
Too many(not all) republicans have given trump a pass in this very specific arena...I have family members who have been raped, so I have no tolerance for these kind of fucking creeps or their enablers....which, by the way, includes that church full of pedophiles that Biden claims is so great..
 
KSnative said:
I haven't just seen him, I've talked with him. Some really bad stuff coming out on him though. E.g., he allegedly once asked a young lady who was sitting on his lap to kiss him. Then her hair got caught in his wheelchair when she decided to bail. Not quite sure how the mechanics on that evolved but I guess you'd have to use your imagination. Alsok, a "me too'er", after driving with him to a remote field, was shocked to learn that he was interested in more than her mental attributes. Rough stuff. Of course, by this time he was already wheelchair bound so all she really needed to do was stroll away, but as a college student such mundane things as evasive tactics were perhaps just not in her skill bank.

I suggested that he arm his wheelchair before reporting for duty. What are they going to do - take his chair away? Turns out he should have paid more attention to that one.

Not sure who would ever want to run for office if you aren't in solid with the team that owns the media. Not me.
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Yikes. I suppose there is dirt on everyone in politics or pretty much everyone for that matter. Everyone kind of keeps a secret to themselves at some point, doesn't make it right.

I agree with you, I would never run for office. Ever.
 
Also, FYI I unpinned this post from the feed. I don't mind it as everyone seems to be engaged and thoughtful.

As far as Cawthorn or ANY other politician goes for that matter, it's what the media says. How can we honestly "fact check" anything the media says? They can say whatever they want... that's the biggest thing in my opinion. It "can be" gaslighting.

Stocks, negative interest rates, short sellers, Gamestop, Wallstreet bets, Carl Ichan, Elon Musk, politicians selling stocks in Feb 2020, etc... all forms of gaslighting, manipulation, etc.

I think what Martha Stewart did would be considered tame nowadays. 🤣

"Greed... for lack of a better word, is good." - Gordon Gekko. Or is it...

 
webguy said:
Also, FYI I unpinned this post from the feed. I don't mind it as everyone seems to be engaged and thoughtful.

As far as Cawthorn or ANY other politician goes for that matter, it's what the media says. How can we honestly "fact check" anything the media says? They can say whatever they want... that's the biggest thing in my opinion. It "can be" gaslighting.

Stocks, negative interest rates, short sellers, Gamestop, Wallstreet bets, Carl Ichan, Elon Musk, politicians selling stocks in Feb 2020, etc... all forms of gaslighting, manipulation, etc.

I think what Martha Stewart did would be considered tame nowadays. 🤣

"Greed... for lack of a better word, is good." - Gordon Gekko. Or is it...

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Joe Biden is a sitting President; that curbs my tongue a bit (see, it can be done). But I do have personal knowledge of a US Marine that came close enough to inviting a certain fellow to demonstrate the same prowess he claims to have employed on "Corn Pop". I think, in that instance, Papa was actually attempting to be flattering - yikes! Ego is in the mix somewhere, and perhaps even some actual compassion - just no sense of what is, and is not appropriate at any given time or in any given place.

In the "small world" department - I knew well the young man who hired Ms Lewinsky to work in the West Wing. I have very high confidence in his personal accounts that she was very hard working, competent, dedicated - and totally overawed by the circumstances she found herself in.
 
Haretrigger said:
felony molestation of children...It was beyond my comprehension that there was so much sexual abuse of children going on.
I take my earlier statement back....rather than a kick to the balls...I say cut em off, irrespective of their voter registration
Seems I recall Trump saying nice things about Epstein...something along the lines of liking em young and basically...that was cool
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Could not possibly agree more with you when it comes to molestation of children, or for that the rape of anyone. I'd further your motion and add to it that a dull knife marinated in a barn yard should be used to perform the task.

Don't think you are being fair to our admittedly colorful ex-Pres. He did find nice things to say about a lot of people - including many Democrats (not just Epstein) during that very large part of his life that he was, himself, a dedicated Dem. Had not heard the comments about Epstein that you cite - seem kind of vague. Somebody said something. In any event, a pedophile, or sympathizer, would mask this preference, not flaunt it - young is 18 or 21 would be young to the rest of us. What we do know is that Trump gave Epstein the boot from Mar Lago immediately, once Epstein's proclivities became known to him.

Fame and wealth draw vultures. I think we owe it to anyone, anywhere to be sure of our facts before perpetuating such ugly innuendos. How would you feel if this kind of inference was being made about you? This type of allocation never really washes off, true or false.
 
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