Road Survey

CRP said:
Up 60%, down 60%, above/below 10-year average bla bla bla....
This is nothing more than SD GF&P talking points to get hunters here to spend their $$ to save all of those small towns from going extinct. One-day surveys by postal carriers is not much of a valid survey, but the GF&P runs with it every year. In fact, has the SD GF&P EVER said that the forecasted birds counts were awful???

Those of us who live here will likely hunt no matter what the surveys are. However, whether we hunt most of the season or not really depends on what we see opening day. For instance, in good years, there are always lots of birds on opening day. Opening day 2013 was pretty bad, and most hunters didn't get close to a limit the 1st weekend, and didn't hunt much the rest of the season.

The 2014 opener is coming up quick, and most reports from "actual landowners" seem to be more birds seen than last year at this time. I hope its true. But, as others have stated, hunters need to make sure that being in-the-field is fun and enjoyable, no matter what the results are. That being said, before I drove 12/14/18 hours or more, I'd like to have some pretty accurate bird counts than what a 1-day postal carrier survey indicated.....
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You don't have a clue on what you are taking about.
#1. SDGFP does all the road surveys over a 20 day period. Have for over 50 years.
#2. 2013 SDGFP reported #'s down big time. They didn't lie for the small towns you speak of.
#3. SD locals will hunt no matter what???? - Wrong!!!!!! Almost 12,000 LESS SD residents pheasant hunted in 2013 than 2012. About 20%

Please don't make SD residents look so dumb :cool::cool:
 
Guys,

I would like to just comment that I have been on the ground twice this summer (July 4th weekend & Labor Day weekend). Being a non-resident them are the only two times I can get out to the house over the summer and put boots on the ground to get my own survey done. The numbers I seen are more than I have witnessed over the last 3-4 years. Maybe it's not a record year but in my estimation hunting should be considerably better this year than last year.

During my July 4th trip there were very young broods on the ground and there were still pheasants paired up breeding. We seen multiple broods in various locations.

Labor Day weekend we seen many broods in various locations again. From what we seen there looks to be multiple hatches and this is based the various sizes of the chicks we seen. Didn't seem hard to find pheasants while scouting. The broods are out along the roads eating bugs, grasshoppers to be exact- pure protein. There is no shortage of food, there's 1000's of grasshoppers this year.

Overall I think it will be exceptional pheasant season. I think the stars have aligned to make this season memorable. The number of birds that I have seen on the ground this summer support this in my opinion. if people decline on a trip to SD well that's just more open space without pressure for me to hunt. LOL:D- Just trying add a little humor. Don't want anyone to take the last statement out of context....
 
SD sounds like the place the place to be this season...wish I could be there.
 
BeirlSetters said:
Guys,

I would like to just comment that I have been on the ground twice this summer (July 4th weekend & Labor Day weekend). Being a non-resident them are the only two times I can get out to the house over the summer and put boots on the ground to get my own survey done. The numbers I seen are more than I have witnessed over the last 3-4 years. Maybe it's not a record year but in my estimation hunting should be considerably better this year than last year.

During my July 4th trip there were very young broods on the ground and there were still pheasants paired up breeding. We seen multiple broods in various locations.

Labor Day weekend we seen many broods in various locations again. From what we seen there looks to be multiple hatches and this is based the various sizes of the chicks we seen. Didn't seem hard to find pheasants while scouting. The broods are out along the roads eating bugs, grasshoppers to be exact- pure protein. There is no shortage of food, there's 1000's of grasshoppers this year.

Overall I think it will be exceptional pheasant season. I think the stars have aligned to make this season memorable. The number of birds that I have seen on the ground this summer support this in my opinion. if people decline on a trip to SD well that's just more open space without pressure for me to hunt. LOL:D- Just trying add a little humor. Don't want anyone to take the last statement out of context....
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Beirlsetters- thank you for the update on what you've seen this summer. I'm going to SD for the 6th year now and this will be my 7th year hunting birds. Coming from MO I appreciate everyones feedback of what they're seeing. Although the reports made by Fish & Game don't sway my decision on coming up there I do really enjoy hearing what people are witnessing. It's a beautiful place up there and I can't wait for the trip. I leave MO in 41 days 21 hours 11 minutes and 44 seconds!!! Happy hunting everyone!
 
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I believe these surveys are fairly accurate but it always depends on what areas and pockets you hunt as well ! Numbers are great sure but think about your best friend on the heel and your closest friends and family sharing the experience. Take away anyone of those I described and the trip wouldn't be the same. Life is short bird numbers or not I'm in every year. Also appreciate when guys report on progress out there makes the birdy blood flow through the veins even more!!!!
 
If you have faith in the yearly harvest totals, they are probably a better indicator of what bird numbers are doing:

Year Harvest
2004 1.6 m
2005 2.0 m
2006 1.8 m
2007 2.1 m
2008 1.9 m
2009 1.7 m
2010 1.8 m
2011 1.6 m
2012 1.4 m
2013 1.0 m

2013 estimates were down 65% but the harvest was only down 28%. Did we all work more than 2 times longer, harder and smarter in 2013 to make up a large part of the difference. Maybe so. From my experience in field, I think numbers were down about 30-35% last year, closer to the decline in harvest.

If all efforts were equal in 2012 and 2013, a 65% decline in birds would equate to a harvest of about 500 thousand birds but we had double that. And despite estimates up this year by 75%, I seriously doubt that we will harvest 1.7 million birds this year. 1.3 is my guess for 2014.

Just something to ponder.......
 
Yearly Harvest Totals? Not sure how they are accumulated but in the years our group has hunted we were never asked nor did we ever give our kill numbers to anyone. I think harvest totals are nothing more than a guess based on number of liscenses sold.
 
totals

over the years I have filled out my totals but they have always been so generic that they seemed meaningless to me. we have the hip system but their questions also seem meaningless. for example on dove, they will ask whether your kill was maybe 1-10 and 10-20 and 20-30 or something like that, while I and many others are killing two to many times that. so I think it is meaningless. never have I been asked for exact amounts. dunno

cheers
 
I have no idea how they come up with harvest totals. Guess only the GFP could answer that. But I'm guessing it's some kind of scientific estimating system they have used over the years. I'm sure the road survey is somewhat like that also. Neither is 100% accurate but it probably gives a rough idea of the number of birds. They have been doing it for a long time so I'm sure there is some method to it.
 
They send out a survey to a certain percentage of hunters. Then a certain percentage of those respond. Statisticians know what percentage this should be to obtain reasonable accuracy. It's like polling, they only take a very small sample and still only have a small margin of error of about 2-3%.

They might send out questions to 20% of licensed hunters and if half of those respond, they feel statistically comfortable with an estimate. Over many years, they provide a reasonably decent track on the numbers.

Go to the SD GFP web-site and give it a look.
 
All kidding aside, I believe the SD GFP are good, honest, hard working people that make a reasonably good effort on estimates and harvests. Down 65%, up 75% - can't say that I believe that their goal is to get free pizza and beer every year from the Chamber. I really don't find a lot of "sugar-coating" or positive spinning. They basically say "here's what we found and here's our best explanation of why numbers are up or down.
 
Here's how I would label the bigger declines in numbers:

25-35% Serious
35-50% Very Serious
50-65% Critical
65-80% Disastrous
80-95% Catastrophic

There's no word that can describe a decline in one year of more than 95%, but it is my worst nightmare. Here's how it could happen though: CRP @ way below 5% of the landscape and an especially cold, snowy, and brutal winter coupled with a cold, wet spring that follows it. Grass above 10% is the lifeline to long term sustainable numbers.
 
Game and Fish survey data is obsolete in a number of ways:

1. have routes change since inception of data collection? No. Has landscape and farming practices changed along the route? Yes. Is the data statistically relevent? Debatable but IMO NO.

2. Post season harvest data from Game and fish includes a lot of harvested birds that are released by non-preserve-licensed outfitters. Is the data then statistically irrelevant? YES. South Dakotas Pheasant Hunting Brand is at risk because of this issue alone.

I know of thousands of acres of newly enrolled CRP acres coming into play in 2015. Will game and fish data reflect this enrollment? NO.
 
I believe that both route counts and harvest estimates provide a reasonable picture of bird numbers for these reasons:

1. The routes adequately cover almost all of SD. That was true in 1970 and it's true today. If landscape and farming practices have changed over time, that will, over the long term, be reflected in the numbers.

2. If you prefer to deduct a certain number of pen-reared birds from the harvest totals, that's ok. Still, the overwhelming number of birds harvested in SD are wild, so with some reasonable margin of error, the statistics provide a decent(but not perfect) guide to the numbers situation in SD. There is certainly a good(but not perfect) correlation between route counts, harvest estimates, and hunters' opinion of the seasons bird numbers.

3. If CRP is coming on line in 2015, GOOD. That eventually will have a positive effect on route counts, harvests, and hunters' opinions.

The bottom-line is this: The GFP gets a decent picture of the RELATIVE number of birds, as they most certainly fluctuate, over a VERY long period of time.
 
UGUIDE said:
Game and Fish survey data is obsolete in a number of ways:


2. Post season harvest data from Game and fish includes a lot of harvested birds that are released by non-preserve-licensed outfitters. Is the data then statistically irrelevant? YES. South Dakotas Pheasant Hunting Brand is at risk because of this issue alone.
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So you are saying that SD hunting outfitters who don't hold a valid preserve license (a pretty limited number in the big picture) are illegally releasing hundreds of thousands pheasants and that they are able to acquire and release that large a number of rooster pheasants only?
 
Downtown Bang! said:
So you are saying that SD hunting outfitters who don't hold a valid preserve license (a pretty limited number in the big picture) are illegally releasing hundreds of thousands pheasants and that they are able to acquire and release that large a number of rooster pheasants only?
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I don't believe it is illegal to release pheasants. I know of a couple of places that do later in the season.
 
Be careful what you say UGuide. Like most all forums where men are allowed to frequent, the civility often goes by the wayside, if what you say raises the hackles of some who don't like the comments.

All I said in my post was that the annual pheasant surveys are not always accurate, based on many factors, some of which you also mentioned. The loss of CRP acres NOW will have a chilling effect on bird numbers in the future, no matter what comes on-line in 2015.

I know some folks in the SD Tourism Dept., and their stated JOB is to get hunters $$ up here no matter what. It has nothing to do with the job GF&P is dong or their personnel. Simply understand that pheasants are big business here, and don't put all your eggs in an August survey basket.....

As a native SD wild-bird hunter with over 40 years experience, and spending more days in-the-field than most on this forum, I have some opinions on what works and what doesn't based on that experience. If you don't agree, that's OK.
 
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