March Madness is such a crap shoot, never know when a top-ranked team will go down like last year when UVA, a #1 seed lost to UMBC, a 16 seed. Look at the run that Loyola of Chicago made last year, all the way to the Final 4.
I'll be somewhat surprised if any Big 12 team makes it to the Final 4, but you never know. Texas Tech is playing some solid ball, but they have a history of flaming out in the tournament As far as Wade being healthy, that doesn't seem to be the case unless it is a conscious decision to rest him during the Big 12 tournament.