Predictions

A5 Sweet 16 said:
Holy cow!!!!! I'm going to hunt the Sisseton area!!!!! 210% more birds than last year!!! I should get my limit EASY!
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Yup, instead of seeing only a half a bird per mile you will now see one and a quarter. :) Watertown is up 91% but that only relates to about a half a bird per mile. While it is nice to see an increase statewide it's less than a bird per mile. Don't let the percentages fool you.
 
Dakotazeb said:
Yup, instead of seeing only a half a bird per mile you will now see one and a quarter. :) Watertown is up 91% but that only relates to about a half a bird per mile. While it is nice to see an increase statewide it's less than a bird per mile. Don't let the percentages fool you.
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as i have said, all i am interested in is BPM.......everything else is just stats compared between years.......what is out there now is what matters.
 
Glad to see the increases. Sure beats the numbers going down. We had great success last year so I would have been more than happy with the numbers being flat. Hope everyone has great success this year.
 
Here is a graphic I made to help figure out if I should be moving my hunting location. For the last 3 years we've hunted public land around Faulkton. Last year we saw very few birds.
Looks like I should think about moving south. Any opinions on where to try? I have the impression that public land is scarce and farmers want big bucks for access in the Chamberlain, Mitchell areas.
Regardless of survey numbers, I'm looking forward to making the trip.

View attachment 8434
 
with the reduction in cover, the counts certainly are down vs 10, 15, 20 years ago...but the trend is our friend...where there is decent cover you probably have decent and huntable bird #'s...if on a 30 mile route 50% of the crp is gone, your bpm will drop...but, where you have cover, you may have similar #'s to the good old years...they're there...enjoy!!! gonna be fun!!!
 
I am happy to see a trend in the right direction I was bummed to hear golf ball sized hail fell in Lyman County today.
Say the chicks are 8-10 weeks along, would anyone care to speculate on the damage that would do? Thank you
 
Pride o presho said:
I am happy to see a trend in the right direction I was bummed to hear golf ball sized hail fell in Lyman County today.
Say the chicks are 8-10 weeks along, would anyone care to speculate on the damage that would do? Thank you
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Depends if they get hit by the hail. But seriously, I'm thinking the chicks are large enough to find refuge from the hail & the effect will be minimal.
 
12 years straight coming from Western Washington, I have taken his picture in that spot on the full moon rise the last 5 years, probably last trip with him, thank you for the well wishes. Best of luck to you in 18’
 
How does the pheasant counts work? In SD it's pheasant per mile and when the MN map comes out tomorrow it is pheasants per square mile. So lets say to take the 5.29 ppm around the Chamberlain area and compute 5.29^2, you get 27.98 per square mile. That would just land in the MN fair zone (which the MN forcast map is coming out tomorrow. I must be missing something or computing something wrong? Can any one shed some light?
 
Flush em up said:
How does the pheasant counts work? In SD it's pheasant per mile and when the MN map comes out tomorrow it is pheasants per square mile. So lets say to take the 5.29 ppm around the Chamberlain area and compute 5.29^2, you get 27.98 per square mile. That would just land in the MN fair zone (which the MN forcast map is coming out tomorrow. I must be missing something or computing something wrong? Can any one shed some light?
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i would say the MN. formula is jacked up.....needs a lot of clarification on how they arrive at their numbers.
 
Flush em up said:
How does the pheasant counts work? In SD it's pheasant per mile and when the MN map comes out tomorrow it is pheasants per square mile. So lets say to take the 5.29 ppm around the Chamberlain area and compute 5.29^2, you get 27.98 per square mile. That would just land in the MN fair zone (which the MN forcast map is coming out tomorrow. I must be missing something or computing something wrong? Can any one shed some light?
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Good areas in sd probably carry hundreds of birds per section of land, even in 2018....It was a thousand or more a decade or two ago. They must have all the ingredients the birds need--food, water, and cover, the latter mainly prairie grasses with some cattails, some tree belts, etc. not even close when you compare good areas from each state, not to say mn doesn't have some areas with good #'s, however.
 
benelli-banger said:
Good areas in sd probably carry hundreds of birds per section of land, even in 2018....It was a thousand or more a decade or two ago. They must have all the ingredients the birds need--food, water, and cover, the latter mainly prairie grasses with some cattails, some tree belts, etc. not even close when you compare good areas from each state, not to say mn doesn't have some areas with good #'s, however.
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That's exactly why the MN birds per sq mile don't add up when compared the squared the SD PPM number. I feel like i am o er looking something but when you look at Minnesota's map the "best" areas are 49 birds per square mile then when you square SD's "best" ppm, it's lower than MN which is obviously not correct
 
birds counted per mile of driving in SD will lead to a completely different outcome than MN estimating the # of birds per square mile that a section of land can carry under normal conditions...
 
I don't know if Minnesota has compiled enough info to determine birds per section based on road count, but I doubt it. More likely that they're comparing previous harvest numbers with road counts. Either way, it's misleading. Just the road count would be the best info.


I'm looking forward to their survey.
 
Randy S said:
I don't know if Minnesota has compiled enough info to determine birds per section based on road count, but I doubt it. More likely that they're comparing previous harvest numbers with road counts. Either way, it's misleading. Just the road count would be the best info.

I'm looking forward to their survey.
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You look at their road count and it seems to be a different state. The map is what most people see being most are visual people. I am looking forward to the count as well. Been checking the website throughout the day today. They said the counts were supposed to be out today.
 
sounds like a lot of clean farming up their? tough for birds to find a place to pull off a brood.....
 
I read the Minnesota report and their report is based on a 100 mile route, not a square mile. In comparison Iowa’s where I live is based on a 30 mile route.
 
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