Predictions

Chip

Member
According to the South Dakota GFP the annual brood survey starts July 25 and ends August 15. What is your prediction for the state wide % up down or the same
 

benelli-banger

Active member
According to the South Dakota GFP the annual brood survey starts July 25 and ends August 15. What is your prediction for the state wide % up down or the same

statewide, up 40%. some areas probably up around 70%, some up only 10%. still pretty low in real #'s...we went from about 3 birds per mile in 2016 to about 1.7 last year. Again, that is statewide. I bet the average is around 2.5 birds per mile, which could be a 50% increase.
 

Dakotazeb

Well-known member
Throw the percentages out. While a 50% increase seems fantastic think about it like this. If your area had 1.7 birds per mile last year a 50% increase is only about .8 birds. From all that I'm reading and hearing the numbers statewide will certainly be up from last year. But I think it may vary greatly from one area to another due to some extreme weather differences. The southeast part of the state had a lot of rain and flooding which could not have helped. And the central part from Huron up to Aberdeen is still in a severe drought area. Overall, look for increased pheasant numbers and better hunting than last year.
 

benelli-banger

Active member
Throw the percentages out. While a 50% increase seems fantastic think about it like this. If your area had 1.7 birds per mile last year a 50% increase is only about .8 birds. From all that I'm reading and hearing the numbers statewide will certainly be up from last year. But I think it may vary greatly from one area to another due to some extreme weather differences. The southeast part of the state had a lot of rain and flooding which could not have helped. And the central part from Huron up to Aberdeen is still in a severe drought area. Overall, look for increased pheasant numbers and better hunting than last year.

like I said, a 50% increase still results in a low overall number of birds...we must have written our replies about the same time...but by far, this winter, spring and summer are better as a whole than 2017 as a whole...good thing the worst weather (SE) is an area that isn't that great to begin with, so the real impact of that rain won't be that great...
 

benelli-banger

Active member
no, overall #'s will still be sucky vs the 10 year average...but even in bad years I have lots of fun, so if I have 25% or 50% MORE fun than last year, that is OK!!!!!!!!!!!!!
 

A5 Sweet 16

Well-known member
Southeast up 30%
South central up 45%
North central up 40%
Northeast up 25%
Statewide up 38.62%
The 5 numbers above will be as useful as the brood survey report in predicting what this season will be like. But.....those are my guesses.
 

benelli-banger

Active member
Southeast up 30%
South central up 45%
North central up 40%
Northeast up 25%
Statewide up 38.62%
The 5 numbers above will be as useful as the brood survey report in predicting what this season will be like. But.....those are my guesses.


i am in general agreement...SE not as much, SC you are on, NC not as much, NE you are on, Statewide you are on...Chamberlain area probably highest count, though they may have been hit by drought last year, but I think they were still the highest last year
 

A5 Sweet 16

Well-known member
Right, I think the few birds left in the SE moved north &/or west this year.
 
Good or bad I will be there with the dogs. Might have to walk a few more miles but its all about the experience and hopefully we knock down a few birds. Pretty excited to get out there have a few young females that need a nose full of pheasant this year.
 

Woollybob

Member
The survey came out today: 47% increase statewide. Not the rebound I would like to have seen, but at least directionally correct.
 

BigRand

Active member
The thing that worries me is look how far off it is from the 10 year average. Some of those peak years a dropping off now on that average and it's still below. Not good, but improving. Just shows it takes a lot of good years to make up for decreasing numbers.
 

Woollybob

Member
The thing that worries me is look how far off it is from the 10 year average. Some of those peak years a dropping off now on that average and it's still below. Not good, but improving. Just shows it takes a lot of good years to make up for decreasing numbers.

I agree. The 10-year average is dropping every year - lowering where the benchmark is. In the glory days a decade ago, PPMs >6 were the norm. This year's 2.5 is still a ways off from 6.

I am starting to wonder if the reality is that things are just returning to normal and we were spoiled by the abundance of birds for several years and assumed that should have been the 'new normal'. If you look at the long-term trend chart (last page of the report), you could say that we are not really in a trough now: PPM around 3-4 was normal in the trend from the 60's to 2002. The period from 2003-2010 was a big spike in PPM - an outlier in the historical trend (other than pre-1963 Soil Bank era).
 

A5 Sweet 16

Well-known member
Holy cow!!!!! I'm going to hunt the Sisseton area!!!!! 210% more birds than last year!!! I should get my limit EASY!
 
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