CRP Signup 41 Vs. $6.30 Bushel Corn

UGUIDE

UGUIDE

Active member
What will win?

I am not sure what price of corn was last August during last General Signup but I would guess around $3-4/bushel.

With the signup starting March 14 I am hedging that it will not accomplish the 4 million acres targeted at these corn prices.

What do you all think? Any guestimates on what the signup will accomplish?

I would say close to 1 million acres short of goal or worse if corn prices stay high or go higher.
 
I was thinking the same thing. I would bet CRP will be a tough sell. My thought is why did they just not accept an additional 4 million in Aug.
 
Seems like at harvest time the bottom falls out of the corn price. Isn't drought and other weather related problems in other countries what drove grain prices up? If weather conditions improve and more U.S. acres go into corn wouldn't that cause over production and corn prices to fall?
 
There is a lot of land in western Kansas that will be reenrolled. I have a friend that is putting 4 quarters back in. You need to remember a lot of that land that was put in isn't good farm ground. A lot of it is eroded, terraces washed out, and has ditches washed all over it. It takes a lot of money to get ground like this back in production. Also the rental rates have been raised. The CRP contracts are for 10 years and farmers are smart enough to know that these grain prices aren't going to last. I think you will be surprised how much goes in. We are going to enroll some more. There are also a lot of absentee landowners that would much rather get a check from the govt. once a year, than have to deal with renters.
 
fsentkilr said:
There is a lot of land in western Kansas that will be reenrolled. I have a friend that is putting 4 quarters back in. You need to remember a lot of that land that was put in isn't good farm ground. A lot of it is eroded, terraces washed out, and has ditches washed all over it. It takes a lot of money to get ground like this back in production. Also the rental rates have been raised. The CRP contracts are for 10 years and farmers are smart enough to know that these grain prices aren't going to last. I think you will be surprised how much goes in. We are going to enroll some more. There are also a lot of absentee landowners that would much rather get a check from the govt. once a year, than have to deal with renters.
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I have some land KS that has been rented for the past few years. Its good land but my renter isn't going to farm it this year. I just talked to the Agriculture office about CRP. I can plant it in cover that's good for wild birds, not have to mess with the hassle every year and get just about as much from CRP as I was renting it out. It'll probably go in.
 
Most of the ground in western kansas is the same as yours. Thats why as long as their are crp signups, crp acres won't diminish out there.
 
Well that is a hard one. The last time they pulled this crap it was ethanol driven.Many had agreements for there 7 dollar corn and got stiffed. Not sure they will bite as hard this time. I think it will boil down to the age and determination of the land owner. The younger ones will take the corn, and the older wiser worn fellows will take the Rocking chair funds. My guess.I know my uncle won't buy into any more inflated corn gimmicks, he got hung to dry by lies basically and no good contracts. I hope if they do opt for the corn they don't get the shaft like last time.
 
I may be way off here, I'm just a small time hobby farmer, but isn't most of the rise in value of a bushel of core because it costs more to produce? I buy tankers of aqueous ammonia weekly where I work and the price has been going up,up,up. And we all see what gas and diesel prices have been doing. With the rise in fuel and ammonia costs, the value of a Bu of corn may rise, but the net profit may stay the same. Thats the whole speculation game isn't it? A land owner would have to weigh more than just price vs. CRP $/acre.

I am not, nor ever have been involved in CRP, but I think many will think "one in the hand..."
 
I'm no guru on this but it sure seems like the inputs lag the price. Meaning as price per nushel rises the inputs like fuel/fert/seed costs follow. When they go back down then inputs go down. Is it a racket or supply and demand?

I just talked to the FSA guy for Douglas coutny SD this morning and since the general CRP signup started a week ago he hasn't had 1 landowner in to talk about the program. He had one interested prior to signup but mentioned he doesn't think that guy will be back after discussing potential CRP rental rates with him.
 
I think they will get the acres signed up. It will just be in Western Kansas, Eastern Colorado, Western Nebraska, West of the river in the Dakota's etc.

We will continue to lose ground in some of the best remaining pheasant (& in some cases duck) production areas like IA, S.W. MN & Eastern Dakota's. Hate seeing all the diversity & benefits that were created with the advent of CRP 25 years ago getting flushed.

IMO what is supporting the current market is artificial and ultimately unstable. It will eventually crash. Producers who don't tread carefully will take the initial hit and like always the companies producing the inputs will walk away with a fat wallet. The rest of us will eventually pay for the aftermath.

Maybe I should have picked up a pointer pup instead of my little flusher. Looks like I will be chasing fewer birds in bigger country over the next decade or so.
 
UGUIDE said:
I'm no guru on this but it sure seems like the inputs lag the price. Meaning as price per nushel rises the inputs like fuel/fert/seed costs follow. When they go back down then inputs go down. Is it a racket or supply and demand?
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The fert price often follows corn because both are tied to the oil market. Fert is higher when oil is higher and fert is lower when oil is lower just like corn.
 
Downtown Bang! said:
IMO what is supporting the current market is artificial and ultimately unstable. It will eventually crash. Producers who don't tread carefully will take the initial hit and like always the companies producing the inputs will walk away with a fat wallet. The rest of us will eventually pay for the aftermath.
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Could be true but in my neck of the woods with corn priced at $4.25 if you owned and farmed the ground making $300 an acre is not much of a strech at all. No CRP will ever compete with that.
 
I notice that fertilizer and gas never get all the way back down to where they were originally, after a bust in the corn market pushes corn to 3.00. It's like a runup to desensitize us to the price, and then a small fall back to make us all feel better, while holding on to the profit margin at higher than the pre runup pricing. The slight relief in pricing is spouted to the government as an example of the free market system at work, which has become one of the three biggest lies in the world, if it ever existed in the first place.
 
You guys in SW Minnesota and Northwest Iowa ought to factor transportation cost into the 6.00 corn equation as well. Distance from the market ports on the big river and shortage of rail capacity are legendary in that area, I smell a long expensive trip somewhere at these fuel prices. As stated by Moeller, prices currently being driven by speculation, probably by hedgefunds, banks, and brokerages bailed out by free government loans. Price won't last, over the next 10 years, I'll wager corn will spend more time under 4.00 than over. The good news of high corn prices is that it may finally expose the folly of the highly subsidized ethanol experiment. Unless the politicians who are plant owners, and there are a whole lot, can shove another, bigger, subsidy through the congress. Problem is, with food prices rising, and housewives complaining, and the government broke, it's going to be a tough sell. Lot more voters eat, than grow corn or make ethanol. Voters matter to elected, government job one, is take care of the government, and preserve the incumbent elected at all cost.
 
oldandnew said:
You guys in SW Minnesota and Northwest Iowa ought to factor transportation cost into the 6.00 corn equation as well. Distance from the market ports on the big river and shortage of rail capacity are legendary in that area, I smell a long expensive trip somewhere at these fuel prices. As stated by Moeller, prices currently being driven by speculation, probably by hedgefunds, banks, and brokerages bailed out by free government loans. Price won't last, over the next 10 years, I'll wager corn will spend more time under 4.00 than over. The good news of high corn prices is that it may finally expose the folly of the highly subsidized ethanol experiment. Unless the politicians who are plant owners, and there are a whole lot, can shove another, bigger, subsidy through the congress. Problem is, with food prices rising, and housewives complaining, and the government broke, it's going to be a tough sell. Lot more voters eat, than grow corn or make ethanol. Voters matter to elected, government job one, is take care of the government, and preserve the incumbent elected at all cost.
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I am no fan of subsidies but isn't oil subsidised too. If it is wrong to subsidise ethanol, it should be wrong to susidize oil too. If we are going to fight one subsidy, fight them all.
 
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Oil is indirectly subsidized with ridiculously low lease rates on public properties. Ethanol is directly subsidized by dollars per gallon or bushel processed, as well as legislated into your fuel at certain levels, regardless of whether or not it is cheaper, ( or better), than the fossil fuel alternative. This does not even consider the cost in water to process ethanol, or higher food costs as a direct result. I realize that ethanol can be good for any given producer or grower out there, but it's bad public policy, as it exists today, and a pre-destined failed economic model. Malthus wrote about this in the 1800's. I am against cheap drilling leases as well, along with selling US timber and oil to Asia, and the US regulations which make it impossible economically to build oil refining facilities in the US. If we put our efforts into bio-diesel, I believe that could be made sustainable, rather quickly. Instead of corn, you'd be growing sunflowers!
 
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