Bird numbers next year?

W

Waterfowler2001

Member
Just want opinions, and estmates of how the season will be next year. Do you think will have more birds produced next year or just another crappy year.
 
All dependant upon mother nature and when the rain falls.

Lets hope for a very wet early fall to fill up the marshes for waterfowl season!
 
There are far, far too many variables that have yet to occur to even entertain what next year will be for sure. However, there are plenty variables from the past year that largely indicate that we won't make a significant recovery next year. True, the birds will probably come through the winter in reasonable condition to go into the nesting season. However that cannot be said about the habitat in most places. The wheat is rated as poor at an alarming percentage. The CRP is largely too short to provide reasonable nesting cover. Pastures are in horible condition and will provide little assistance to the effort. Soil moisture is almost non-existant and the grass habitat went into the dormant season having been burdened by significant top removal. This will equate to the plant having to take from it's root mass in order to begin growth once moisture and temperatures bring it out of dormancy. The dry conditions from October to now will surely reduce the germination of what few forb seeds were released in the past 2 years. The dry conditions and limited plant growth from the last 2 years also equate to a limited invertebrate population coming out of winter. Sure, this can be reversed in a short period of time, but significant change in the weather pattern will be necessary to start that. The forecast is not cherry either. Continued high comodity prices will push landowner to consider bringing more and more CRP out of the program and back into production. Though that has a seasonal potential that is either production neutral or production positive, the CRP will still rank of higher importance when viewed within a full calendar year. Any way you shake it, with the stats we have right now, hope for significant improvement is weak.
 
Wish I could disagree with the Drifter, but he is spot on. Conditions very serious here on the prairie.
 
bird counts

crap shoot but i would bet on fewer. today's paper, area of eastern colo. and w. kansas, warned farmers to not expect any improvement in moisture and to plant accordingly.

cheers
 
HEY!!! Stop with the Negative Waves man.

If the birds eat Ticks we going to have more birds than we can shot :rolleyes:
 
Listening to a ag news show last weekend and the report on the current winter wheat crop is that this year is worse than last year. Difficult to have much hope for an improvement unless we see a cataclysmic change in the weather pattern soon.
 
We had a NWS forecaster come talk to us Tuesday and he indicated that there are a number of models forcasting anything from the drought weakening in the next few months to the drought persisting into and through 2014. In the short term, in my area normal rainfall is .68 for January, .96 for February, 1.39 for March, and 2.48 for April. The NWS man stated we need 6 inches to come out of the current drough and those "normal" averages I listed don't give you much indication that anything like that is on the horizon. I'm sure Steve's new farm will see perfect conditions, but the rest of the state will probably suffer on. For 2013, much of the damage has already been done and the best of conditions will not repair that. Plants are what they are, and they will come out of the overgrazing and late haying of 2012 weakened. Unfortunately, the shorter stature of that grass will expose the soil to increased solar impacts resulting in higher soil temperatures and higher wind speeds close to the ground that will result in above normal evaporation and exagerated desication. That means that the grass stand will not be able to efficiently utilized what precipitation it does receive because the soil is not insulated from those physical impacts.
 
Well as MR Byrd said it is hard to disagree with Drifter. But don't forget these are all forcasts, ie predictions based on trends and the best models we have, but still predictions. I think people tend to predict a poorer outcome and if it is better than everyone is happy. If you predict a better result and it ends up being worse people are disapointed. So with that said I did see a lot of Hens at the end of the season and to me that means there is a potential for an incease. Of course depending on the variables, but you have to start with some hens...
 
It all depends on spring weather for nesting conditions. I don't agree the wheat is worse than last year. If we get spring moisture there could be a very good wheat crop. The wheat from where I live in eastern Kansas clear to Garden City looks fine. I think maybe farther west than that is where its the worst. The birds I shot the last few days of season had lots of fat on them and were in good shape, so at least the winter was good for them. The forecast a week out has moisture for western Kansas the end of next week. I hope its right and the pattern changes!
 
wheat

most of the areas that i travel in n. w. kansas, the wheat to me looked horrible, most of the fields you had to look real close to see if anything had even come up and none of the fields were green. a plus, no winter weather to speak of but then most winters don't bode poorly for the birds, mostly it is all spring and early nesting conditions. the birds i shot last year all had fat, don't think food is a factor, winter has not been but we need weeds for cover and bug growth, that's the problem going forward, i'll get pastor john to work on it

cheers
 
prayers?
wondered that my self the other day,wonder if the whole country shouldn't take 2 minutes and pray for the USA, help in healing alot of it's misery not just the drought.
seems like everybody just fried with stress some days
 
jsdriggs said:
You guys are really bored. Listen to Setter. Stop being so negative. You have a dog. You have a gun. Just go hunting next year. At least you are in Kansas. You could be here where I live with three feet of snow and no pheasants unless you drive hours upon hours.
Click to expand...

I can be in Kansas and still have to drive hours to find pheasants!
 
jsdriggs said:
You guys are really bored. Listen to Setter. Stop being so negative. You have a dog. You have a gun. Just go hunting next year. At least you are in Kansas. You could be here where I live with three feet of snow and no pheasants unless you drive hours upon hours.
Click to expand...

Not bored, just loathing over the season's end.

This past season was very enjoyable. The solitude and reduced pressure are 'worth' a few less birds per square mile. We visited new areas and had a great time. If there are fewer birds next year, there will be few hunters again. Why not start putting doubt in the minds of the fair-weather hunters now? We have about 8 months to convince another 20,000 hunters to go to SD instead:cheers:
 
jsdriggs said:
...... Listen to Setter. ......
Click to expand...

He knows what he is talking about :p:D


I have found covies of quail with good numbers of birds and seen pheasants now after the season ended. It may not be great, but some good weather at the right time and we will bounce a long way back. :cheers:
 
Quail numbers were as good as I've seen for quite a few years. Granted I'm not soley and upland bird hunter though.
 
covey count

while i have shot a fair number of quail, most of were because they happen to have gotten in the way while pheasant hunting, most days, especially in far w. kansas i usually don't encounter them, when i am say, in the norton area, three to four coveys a day is pretty good and two years ago 6 to 8 coveys were possible. asking, on a maybe 6 hour boots to the ground hunt, what is an average covey day and what is a really good day. not counting singles at least from the original flush. just wondering

cheers
 
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