Counting birds is hardly a science and very often leads to imprecise figures. That said, the method hasn't changed. There will always be variables, but driving the same routes using the same methodology will give a good idea of what is out there. Pheasants are not carp, and lower populations do not mean that the hen will double her productions. In years like this, where the hens really struggled through the winter, their bodies were in a depleted state, with less whitherall to pull off a big clutch. The wet spring and less than ideal conditions likely meant lost nests, and the hens will try again, but usually with fewer eggs. Once a single egg hatches, the nest won't try to nest again.
The DNR has nothing to gain by being purposefully pessimistic. In these budget times, they know a bleak forecast will have a dramatic effect on license sales. I can see the DNR puffing high counts, or minimizing loss in a bad year to protect license sales (look at SD's GFP). If the imperfect method of roadside counts shows fewer birds, it means something. Does it mean it will be dismal all over? No. The great thing about pheasant hunting is that success has nothing to do with the next country, state, county or even township. You have a pocket of good habitat, you'll find birds. In my county, the three routes run along very good pheasant habitat. The counts revealed birds, but fewer than in past years. That doesn't mean the more marginal areas will produce success however.
In speaking with a habitat contractor based out of Montevideo, he informed me that he saw more birds in a project area he was working on in my county than anywhere else he'd worked this summer, which was somewhat bittersweet news. Don't let the counts keep you home. Rather, keep at the birds, at your elected officials to support farmland conservation initiatives, and at the keep at the prayers for an easy winter on the birds and a dry, warm spring 2012.