Soybean price helps habitat

This is the first year since 2004 that my buddy did not plant any soybeans. Between the prices and the aphids it just isn't worth it. He did pick up some black turtle bean acres and also planted a quarter of wheat for the first time since he sold off his cattle. Been about 150 doves, 25 pigeons, and 7 geese shot off that wheat stubble so far. ;)
 
Several hundred doves were using our wheat stubble. Three days before the season every last one disappeared. But the turkeys are finding lots of grasshoppers, and the deer are still feeding there.
 
SPUR60 said:
This is the first year since 2004 that my buddy did not plant any soybeans. Between the prices and the aphids it just isn't worth it. He did pick up some black turtle bean acres and also planted a quarter of wheat for the first time since he sold off his cattle. Been about 150 doves, 25 pigeons, and 7 geese shot off that wheat stubble so far. ;)Sounds like a pretty good trade off!
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Yeah thank Dandy Don and his tariffs for the worthless soybeans. Saw an article on TV other countries are getting them tariff free elsewhere now.
 
Bird Buster said:
Yeah thank Dandy Don and his tariffs for the worthless soybeans. Saw an article on TV other countries are getting them tariff free elsewhere now.
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So you think we should ignore the gross trade imbalance, just let it go on? It is unfortunate that the people growing crops and raising livestock were some of the few "manufactures" in this country whose goods foreigners are willing to buy, because the tariff wars have definitely hurt them.

But a few people don't get to negate policies that help the vast majority of citizens. We had to do something.
 
Bird Buster said:
Yeah thank Dandy Don and his tariffs for the worthless soybeans. Saw an article on TV other countries are getting them tariff free elsewhere now.
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Your supposition is incorrect unless you believe that soybeans are an inelastic worldwide market where supply far out paces demand. Since we do not see millions of bushels of soybeans rotting in storage anywhere in the world, I don't think that can possibly be correct.

It's like believing that oil pumped from a well in Russia will not find a home somewhere because there is just too much oil and we can tariff or sanction demand from the rest of the world.

the fact is that there is X demand for beans in the world, and virtually every last one from one season is consumed prior to the next season. A tariff here means nothing. It just rearranges who ships beans to whom.
 
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AtTheMurph said:
Your supposition is incorrect unless you believe that soybeans are an elastic worldwide market where supply far out paces demand. Since we do not see millions of bushels of soybeans rotting in storage anywhere in the world, I don't think that can possibly be correct.

It's like believing that oil pumped from a well in Russia will not find a home somewhere because there is just too much oil and we can tariff or sanction demand from the rest of the world.

the fact is that there is X demand for beans in the world, and virtually every last one from one season is consumed prior to the next season. A tariff here means nothing. It just rearranges who ships beans to whom.
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Well actually it isn’t that simple? For the folks in the northern growing areas such as the Dakotas their markets are based on shipping through the west coast ports. Who buys soybeans from west coast ports ? Yes, China is the market for those soybeans.

Without China these northern growers need to compete against central corn belt and eastern growers for markets out of New Orleans and the east coast. The buyer doesn’t care how much it cost you to get it to the port (basis) so cash price to the farmer is going to take a hit.

So no, the consumption of soy doesn’t change but the disruption of supply lines hurts the producer. As one politician said, farming is the only business where you buy retail and sell wholesale.
 
McFarmer said:
Well actually it isn’t that simple? For the folks in the northern growing areas such as the Dakotas their markets are based on shipping through the west coast ports. Who buys soybeans from west coast ports ? Yes, China is the market for those soybeans.

Without China these northern growers need to compete against central corn belt and eastern growers for markets out of New Orleans and the east coast. The buyer doesn’t care how much it cost you to get it to the port (basis) so cash price to the farmer is going to take a hit.

So no, the consumption of soy doesn’t change but the disruption of supply lines hurts the producer. As one politician said, farming is the only business where you buy retail and sell wholesale.
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Ships can change course and do. Simply look at the example caused by the sanctions on Russia. The oil gets shipped, but ends up where there is demand. Same thing with beans.
 
AtTheMurph said:
Ships can change course and do. Simply look at the example caused by the sanctions on Russia. The oil gets shipped, but ends up where there is demand. Same thing with beans.
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“A tariff here means nothing.”

This is patently wrong. Unless of course you feel a hit to person’s livelihood means nothing. It is a demonstrable fact that soybeans in North Dakota are worth less at the farm due to China not buying.

Maybe you are not familiar with the concept of “basis” in the grain marketing world.

A very short article :

www.codakgroup.com

U.S. Soybean Exports & North Dakota Harvest Basis: Trade War Uncertainty and Market Strategy — CODAK Risk Advisory

With Chinese purchases stalled and trade war tensions rising, North Dakota soybean basis values are dropping fast. Discover how U.S. farmers can navigate uncertain markets as harvest approaches and decisions loom.
www.codakgroup.com www.codakgroup.com



Grampa once told me to stop digging.
 
McFarmer said:
“A tariff here means nothing.”

This is patently wrong. Unless of course you feel a hit to person’s livelihood means nothing. It is a demonstrable fact that soybeans in North Dakota are worth less at the farm due to China not buying.

Maybe you are not familiar with the concept of “basis” in the grain marketing world.

A very short article :

www.codakgroup.com

U.S. Soybean Exports & North Dakota Harvest Basis: Trade War Uncertainty and Market Strategy — CODAK Risk Advisory

With Chinese purchases stalled and trade war tensions rising, North Dakota soybean basis values are dropping fast. Discover how U.S. farmers can navigate uncertain markets as harvest approaches and decisions loom.
www.codakgroup.com www.codakgroup.com



Grampa once told me to stop digging.
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You gave a very simple and to the point explanation of basis. I don't think he was listening.
 
Crude oil works much the same way. Lower quality crude far from end users can go below the price it takes to get it out of the ground when you include the added cost of moving it.
 
Soybeans have become too predominant. Ag companies, chemical companies, seed companies, grain trading companies have all developed a true monoculture approach. Beans and Corn. Many farmers had no choice but to comply.

10 years ago, we were in a township in middle NoDak. Stutsman county to be exact. It used to be a kaleidoscope of crops ... that day we drove most every road in the township (scouting) and found one single field in wheat. The entire township was in beans. Rinse and repeat across much of northern MN and much of ND.
 
For those that do get a contract to ship to Asia (China). Ocean freight costs are pretty low this year and container availability is good. It is actually soybeans which helps get those containers back to China full vs. empty.
 
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