Could the Dew be a Skew?

UGUIDE

UGUIDE

Active member
Rumor has it some of the road count surveys for the state may have quite a bit of variability regarding dew and road count numbers.

It was interesting to learn that by state law (statute) these surveys need to be completed by Aug. 15th. He also mentioned that depending on the dew situation that on a dewey morning where you might see 100 birds on a non dewey morning you might only see 30.

I didn't dew so well in statistics in college but it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out that this brood count survey would be more telling and comparable if they also tracked the weather conditions that could correlate to dewey vs. non-dewey conditions so that the analysts and general viewers of the survey results might be able to draw more accurate conclusions about the findings of the route run results.

I guess I am not even sure you can correlate what you see on the weather websites as far as dew points and having a lot of dew on the grass? Yes, no, maybe?

If weather would affect findings by 30 birds vs. 100, then how valuable is the report without the correlating weather data?
 
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That's interesting. Now that I'm thinking about it, many pictures with pheasants standing in the roads have fog in the air, hence, a lot of dew on the grass.

I guess in a perfect world, there would be a multiple for none dew days vs. dew days.:confused:
 
Not sure where or how this plays into the SD counts but think I have seen referenced in the IA reports in years past comments about what the conditions were like during the survey. They stopped short of making any adjustments to the numbers but did reference it as part of the explanation to the numbers.

Matt D
 
If you have variable a (dew) that can have such a dramatic impact on variable B (bird sightings), at what point does the absence of Variable A in the survey make the survey data either invalid or unreliable (useful or valuable)?

Another word that comes to mind is "inconsistent". Using this in terms of some this that are consistent have more value and inconsistency having less value.

A fluctuation of 30 to 100 sightings on a given day, without the missing driver element (metric or measurement) would be extremely inconsistent and not only of little value but as a former business analyst could have resulted in an extreme shortening of my employment status.
 
There are variables always. If you want absolute accuracy the way they are doing it probably won't do it. However I think they tend to get the general idea of where things are at. Last year they said we were down 47%? I have no idea if we were down 47% but we were down. They could have asked 100 farmers that take note of such things and could have learned the same thing.
 
Myself: Just gonna go hunt this fall and enjoy the exiperence, if I get some birds--great-- if not-- oh well still beats sitting in front of the TV.:cheers:
 
UGUIDE said:
If you have variable a (dew) that can have such a dramatic impact on variable B (bird sightings), at what point does the absence of Variable A in the survey make the survey data either invalid or unreliable (useful or valuable)?

Another word that comes to mind is "inconsistent". Using this in terms of some this that are consistent have more value and inconsistency having less value.

A fluctuation of 30 to 100 sightings on a given day, without the missing driver element (metric or measurement) would be extremely inconsistent and not only of little value but as a former business analyst could have resulted in an extreme shortening of my employment status.
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This is too much for a Sunday afternoon.:D My brain hurts.:eek:
 
You are Right

SDJIM said:
Myself: Just gonna go hunt this fall and enjoy the exiperence, if I get some birds--great-- if not-- oh well still beats sitting in front of the TV.:cheers:
Click to expand...

I agree 100% I love to look at the reports but I'll be hunting no matter what they say. Last year was supposed to be a very down year, but I had one of my best ever. You just never know.

Lock and Load! :D
 
Here's the definition of "Survey"

sur·vey (sr-v, sûrv)
v. sur·veyed, sur·vey·ing, sur·veys
v.tr.
1. To examine or look at comprehensively.
2. To inspect carefully; scrutinize: "Two women were surveying the other people on the platform" (Thomas Wolfe). See Synonyms at see1.
3. To determine the boundaries, area, or elevations of (land or structures on the earth's surface) by means of measuring angles and distances, using the techniques of geometry and trigonometry.
4. Chiefly British To inspect and determine the structural condition of (a building).
5. To conduct a statistical survey on.
6. To range one's gaze leisurely over.
v.intr.
To make a survey.
n. (sûrv)pl. sur·veys
1. A detailed inspection or investigation.
2. A general or comprehensive view.
3. A gathering of a sample of data or opinions considered to be representative of a whole.
4.
a. The process of surveying.
b. A report on or map of what has been surveyed.
c. An administrative agency charged with the responsibility of surveying: the U.S. Geological Survey.
 
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