It's all math and statistics. The potential for the 21 season is based partly on the size of the population going into the breeding season. Then all the variables kick in. One variable is the physical condition of the hens coming out of the winter. I'm betting that is more of a negative than a positive this season. Second variable will be the weather. My recent wildland fire training indicated that we are in a drought pattern for this spring so again this may well be a negative. Another variable is the condition of the existing habitat. That, like all the variables, will vary across the state. This response will get really really long if I were to go into every variable, and it is sure that there are variables that no one understands to date. It is sure that the entire state will not be a homogenous population level in all regions. The best bet is to follow the weather and mark off places that get a number of known negative variables and take your best shot at not wasting much time there. The fact that this cold was exacerbated by the snow cover at the same time will possibly make the recent 2 weeks more of a factor. These are boom and bust species and lately it seems more like boom, bust, bust, bust, bust........
