2017 New Pheasant Hunting Forecast Report

UGUIDE, I like your enthusiasm. The pic from 6/29 was from Charles Mix county I bet...you've had good precip there throughout the summer. Yes, good habitat will have better bird #'s than other areas within close proximity..no doubt. Overall, what I like best about UGUIDE's operation is the geographical diversity of his camps...they are far enough away from each other that they will not all be subject to the same weather events. I may differ with UGUIDE about said weather events...I believe extreme's aren't good for the birds...but we can't control the weather, we can only react to it. One of the best tools out there, in my opinion, comes out of the U of Nebraska...google "current climate summary maps"....pretty simple to navigate. Want to see how the rain fell (or didn't) in SD, for example, in June? or the past 7 days? 14 days? 30 days? 60 days? or, see what the temps were? or how they differed from the norm for that timeframe? This is a very valuable tool. Look at rainfall in June, for example, and you have some valuable info. Or temperature deviations from the norm. One tool to assist with hunting location decision making. Good luck!
 
My former PF Biologist called me a couple days ago. Was in my area so I gave him a tour or the place over the phone. He was driving my firebreaks and checking production corn against neighbors as he works for corn growers now.

He was seeing alot of birds, broods and said "you got birds". That carries a lot of weight in my book. He also dumped an 1.90" out of the rain gauge which is total for last couple weeks.

The state is getting some nice rains and we seem to be in a rainy pattern. Drought monitor is updated weekly.
 
i was out in mitchell on 7/14-15 for a wedding...pretty dry, but not considered "drought"...anyway, since i left there on the 15th, the general area has gotten between 5-8" of rain...some of those extremes are only 5-10 miles away from each other...those rains helped a lot....
 
Rain for the farmers is good until the crops start to turn. There is quite a bit of difference between moderate and severe drought.

Rain for pheasant chicks is critical in the first 10 days of life. If rain comes after that ... brood size can be dramatically reduced. The worst case maybe when one or two chicks manage to survive and the hen then does not renest.

Dakotas cover a lot of space. Much of SD should be fine. Unless fall rains appear harvest should run on or ahead of schedule.
 
UGUIDE, I followed your advice and read the PF Summer Outlook. A biologist from ND said: "habitat conditions are poor as of now. most of the state is in a severe drought. chicks need insects to survive, esp in the first 10 days of life, and without much moisture there will be little to no insect hatch. outlook on the pheasant hatch is poor. It is very dry in much of the state, and pheasant production will be below average." The same message was given for E MT as well. Travis Runia, a biologist from SD GFP, intimated the same things but wasn't willing to come out and say it quite yet...he said to wait for the brood count survey later in the summer. I am confused and surprised and incredulous that this debate is occurring at all, and that UGUIDE is the one taking the side he is! Just saying...also, the reference to the "liberal left fake news media" in your hunting outlook is interesting...suggesting that they are involved in the dissemination of inaccuracies re: the state of pheasants in SD...OK, so maybe you were being comical?

let me be clear...I love what UGUIDE is doing with his business. A lot. It is a very good thing.
 
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benelli-banger said:
I am confused and surprised and incredulous that this debate is occurring at all, and that UGUIDE is the one taking the side he is! Just saying...also, the reference to the "liberal left fake news media" in your hunting outlook is interesting...suggesting that they are involved in the dissemination of inaccuracies re: the state of pheasants in SD...OK, so maybe you were being comical?

let me be clear...I love what UGUIDE is doing with his business. A lot. It is a very good thing.
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OK please specify exactly what side am I taking? I am in the camp that "no bugs=no birds" and I have seen plenty of weather over the years to produce a no bugs environment although it is rare a few and far between when there are "no bugs" in South Dakota. The liberal left fake news machine is alive and kickin. In addition to that there are a whole lots of new and improved things happening in the state that a lot of folks are missing.

http://www.uguidesdpheasants.com/uploads/image/Meadow%20Creek/Meadow%20Creek/MeadowCreekHunting.jpg

When I send you pics like this this fall from a county designated as a "natural disaster area" some folks will be a eatin a little black rooster (crow).
 
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The short answer is that you have been stating throughout a few of these threads that drought doesn't necessarily equate to fewer bird numbers, or something to that effect...go to the SD FORUM, and re-read the thread entitled "hot and dry conditions", or something to that effect, and you will see that you were taking a side that about 6 others were opposing. I am not interested in parsing words...drought isn't good, especially during chick hatching periods. To me, August drought is different than June drought, though it can still do damage, probably not as much as a June drought.

"EVEN FROM THE BEST BIOLOGISTS IN THE STATE I HAVE SEEN NO FACTUAL EVIDENCE TO CONFIRM BIRD NUMBERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED." UGUIDE, SUMMER 2017 HUNTING FORECAST. Chris, when was the last time the "best biologists" in the state put out unequivocal reports in June or July re: bird numbers? If you took own your advice, and read the Pheasants Forever summer update, they (biologists) actually do say that in E MT and ND there will likely be a decline in brood sizes because the drought probably inhibited insect production, and for the first ten days of a chicks life that is all they eat, yada yada yada. and Travis Runia, the SD GFP Biologist, wasn't willing to say that quite yet, probably because he knows the impact it could have on NR hunters. You have invested a lot of your time and $ in your business...I hope it does nothing but succeed. You provide the only operation of its kind, and if I hadn't spent the last 25 years developing my own relationships and my own property I would seek UGUIDE out and book with him...there is a need for a sub-$1,000 hunt (per guy), and UGUIDE fills that need very nicely. I have been a vocal supporter of yours for many years.

OK, I am going outside, it is beautiful out and I am going to go for a walk along lake superior. i did talk to one of my farmer buddies yesterday and he did say he is seeing a decent # of young birds...but he is in an area like UGUIDE's farm is located that got decent moisture when it was needed and wasn't ever in "drought" classification..."abnormally dry" I believe was the worst it got, then we got about 8" of rain in a 3 week period during July/August. Certainly there will be areas that do OK, maybe even good. My farmers that hunt and pay attention to the birds are saying they think it will be about like last year, which is fine by me. But again, we were really dry during June, and during that peak chick hatching period (6/5-6/15) we had some really hot temps. We will know in a few months!!!!
 
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benelli-banger said:
The short answer is that you have been stating throughout a few of these threads that drought doesn't necessarily equate to fewer bird numbers, or something to that effect...go to the SD FORUM, and re-read the thread entitled "hot and dry conditions", or something to that effect, and you will see that you were taking a side that about 6 others were opposing. I am not interested in parsing words...drought isn't good, especially during chick hatching periods. To me, August drought is different than June drought, though it can still do damage, probably not as much as a June drought.

"EVEN FROM THE BEST BIOLOGISTS IN THE STATE I HAVE SEEN NO FACTUAL EVIDENCE TO CONFIRM BIRD NUMBERS HAVE BEEN IMPACTED." UGUIDE, SUMMER 2017 HUNTING FORECAST. Chris, when was the last time the "best biologists" in the state put out unequivocal reports in June or July re: bird numbers? If you took own your advice, and read the Pheasants Forever summer update, they (biologists) actually do say that in E MT and ND there will likely be a decline in brood sizes because the drought probably inhibited insect production, and for the first ten days of a chicks life that is all they eat, yada yada yada. and Travis Runia, the SD GFP Biologist, wasn't willing to say that quite yet, probably because he knows the impact it could have on NR hunters. You have invested a lot of your time and $ in your business...I hope it does nothing but succeed. You provide the only operation of its kind, and if I hadn't spent the last 25 years developing my own relationships and my own property I would seek UGUIDE out and book with him...there is a need for a sub-$1,000 hunt (per guy), and UGUIDE fills that need very nicely. I have been a vocal supporter of yours for many years.

OK, I am going outside, it is beautiful out and I am going to go for a walk along lake superior. i did talk to one of my farmer buddies yesterday and he did say he is seeing a decent # of young birds...but he is in an area like UGUIDE's farm is located that got decent moisture when it was needed and wasn't ever in "drought" classification..."abnormally dry" I believe was the worst it got, then we got about 8" of rain in a 3 week period during July/August. Certainly there will be areas that do OK, maybe even good. My farmers that hunt and pay attention to the birds are saying they think it will be about like last year, which is fine by me. But again, we were really dry during June, and during that peak chick hatching period (6/5-6/15) we had some really hot temps. We will know in a few months!!!!
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This is the short answer? :)

The biologists say the pheasants are moving west. Are the survey routes moving west? NO. 80% of routes are in eastern part of state. Conditions will cause increases west river. Result? Road counts don't accurately count total birds in state. Forecast will be down until better system is put in place which won't happen.
 
UGUIDE said:
This is the short answer? :)

The biologists say the pheasants are moving west. Are the survey routes moving west? NO. 80% of routes are in eastern part of state. Conditions will cause increases west river. Result? Road counts don't accurately count total birds in state. Forecast will be down until better system is put in place which won't happen.
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Chris--you are probably right about the birds moving west. I care, but not that much. I have a plan to abort my life as I know it, and move to Lemmon, SD someday. I know that there are birds up there. Other than that, I don't really care about the veracity of the road counts, or what the "liberal left media" has to say...

I hope all of your hunters show up this fall and have a ball. I suspect that they will, you run a good operation from what I can tell. I wish you much success with your business. I am going to go now...I need to walk..I leave for my first hunt in NW ND in less than a month...never thought I would enjoy another type of hunting better than pheasant hunting, but I do...sharptail! Even prefer it as tablefare...especially the hearts!!! Hence my eventual move to Lemmon...perhaps work in Dickinson? Shady Hill looks like it would provide me some fish, too. And I could kill a deer. Live off the fat of the land!! And I would be within striking distance of the bighorn mountains...and other areas in MT....gotta go now.
 
have any of you been following the thread titled "drought" on the ND forum? I have. interesting. GJW is a straight shooter, and I think his most recent post that included a report from his mailman is fairly insightful...and a "blinding flash of the obvious". But, hopefully we will all be shocked by the fantastic survey results...gonna go now...really.
 
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benelli-banger said:
Chris--you are probably right about the birds moving west. I care, but not that much. I have a plan to abort my life as I know it, and move to Lemmon, SD someday. I know that there are birds up there. Other than that, I don't really care about the veracity of the road counts, or what the "liberal left media" has to say...

I hope all of your hunters show up this fall and have a ball. I suspect that they will, you run a good operation from what I can tell. I wish you much success with your business. I am going to go now...I need to walk..I leave for my first hunt in NW ND in less than a month...never thought I would enjoy another type of hunting better than pheasant hunting, but I do...sharptail! Even prefer it as tablefare...especially the hearts!!! Hence my eventual move to Lemmon...perhaps work in Dickinson? Shady Hill looks like it would provide me some fish, too. And I could kill a deer. Live off the fat of the land!! And I would be within striking distance of the bighorn mountains...and other areas in MT....gotta go now.
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As always BB, thanks for the spirited debate and we need more guys like you on the forum and in SD. Many happy trails and good luck hunting this fall. I am always amazed and what jumps out of the weeds.
 
So what are they to say to all the people that would be calling them if they didn't do a survey in the later part of the summer? Show up and find out for yourselves? I'd personally be fine either way. I have the time to scout and connections to help me find places to hunt. If You don't live here or nearby it makes it pretty difficult if your an average guy who only gets a finite amount if days off a year.
 
Has anyone spoke to the farmers/ranchers who cut portions of their CRP this year? I think that would be much more accurate information on how the bird numbers are.
As I drove to work one morning last week I noticed 4 separate broods of young pheasants in a 2 mile stretch. That was much more than normal and I realized that the landowner had cut down a couple hundred acres of grass in the nearby fields. Along with the heavy dew that morning, I think that had the birds out of their normal routine. If the survey had happened that morning, the results would be skewed - whether indicating correctly or not it shouldn't be compared to previous years.
 
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