A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
Yes, you need to have birds in order to shoot them, & yes, you need to have habitat & decent conditions to have birds.
And yes, major catastrophic events can take a toll on bird numbers in a given area.
But I think the GF&P's statistics at least somewhat substantiate the idea that if good habitat remains fairly consistent, the birds will be around as long as there aren't too many major catastrophic events (which we really haven't had on a large scale that I recall since the 2012 drought).
And that in areas with consistently good habitat, hunting conditions during the season typically play a bigger part in hunter success than conditions in the off-season.
Looking at estimates for the last 10 years:
20/21 harvest was back up over a million for the 1st time in 4 years & the 6th highest in the last 10 years.
20/21 birds/hunter was 9.1, the 2nd highest in the last 10 years.
20/21 number of hunters was only 121,000, the 3rd lowest in the last 10 years.
(And no, these numbers do NOT include preserves.)
I don't think much of this was due to extending the season through January. I was out twice a week, each week, & saw VERY few other hunters.
I think it's because of the early harvest last year & good weather. The few that hunted were able to find & corner birds more easily.
I'm no farming expert, but unless something changes drastically, I anticipate another early harvest & another successful season as far as numbers go.
The effects of this drought, assuming it persists, are more likely to be seen fall of 22 & 23.

And yes, major catastrophic events can take a toll on bird numbers in a given area.
But I think the GF&P's statistics at least somewhat substantiate the idea that if good habitat remains fairly consistent, the birds will be around as long as there aren't too many major catastrophic events (which we really haven't had on a large scale that I recall since the 2012 drought).
And that in areas with consistently good habitat, hunting conditions during the season typically play a bigger part in hunter success than conditions in the off-season.
Looking at estimates for the last 10 years:
20/21 harvest was back up over a million for the 1st time in 4 years & the 6th highest in the last 10 years.
20/21 birds/hunter was 9.1, the 2nd highest in the last 10 years.
20/21 number of hunters was only 121,000, the 3rd lowest in the last 10 years.
(And no, these numbers do NOT include preserves.)
I don't think much of this was due to extending the season through January. I was out twice a week, each week, & saw VERY few other hunters.
I think it's because of the early harvest last year & good weather. The few that hunted were able to find & corner birds more easily.
I'm no farming expert, but unless something changes drastically, I anticipate another early harvest & another successful season as far as numbers go.
The effects of this drought, assuming it persists, are more likely to be seen fall of 22 & 23.
