MN Pheasant Map 2023

[Prairie Sunsets]

The funny thing about the map, is that it says, "Birds per sq/mi." Per "sq/mi." Think about that! Where the F is anyone seeing 50 birds every sq/mi??

 

[Woollybob]

The funny thing about the map, is that it says, "Birds per sq/mi." Per "sq/mi." Think about that! Where the F is anyone seeing 50 birds every sq/mi??

Maybe I am not following, but 50 birds on a section of land is pretty reasonable.

 

[Prairie Sunsets]

Maybe I am not following, but 50 birds on a section of land is pretty reasonable.

The map is "based on the roadside count." There's no way 50 birds per section were observed on average anywhere.

 

[TGM]

The funny thing about the map, is that it says, "Birds per sq/mi." Per "sq/mi." Think about that! Where the F is anyone seeing 50 birds every sq/mi??

I contacted Tim Lyons, upland game researcher at MN DNR. Here is how they convert per mile to per sq mi.

The birds per 100mi comes from just extrapolating the average birds seen per 25mi route. The upland game scientist back in the 60’s or 70’s did some of his own math and came up with a way to convert the birds per 100mi of roadside to birds per square mile (birds/100mi x 0.53). It’s really not an accurate estimate (I know from personal experience that it’s easy to get 250+ birds per sq. mi in the right habitat, even when there is no other cover within miles.) but it’s been going on so long, we’re stuck with it. The good new is, the birds/ sq mi is proportional to the roadside survey. So, like the survey index, don’t read too much into the actual number, and look at it as showing where there are more/less birds in a relative sense.

 

[Munster927]

So, like the survey index, don’t read too much into the actual number, and look at it as showing where there are more/less birds in a relative sense.

Agreed. There's been years I've been out when the index showed high numbers and from my experience, hunting was hard and birds were few and far between. Then there's been years where numbers were down but I had a banner year. Suffice it to say, I'll be out there no matter what the survey says.

 

[gimruis]

but it’s been going on so long, we’re stuck with it

Its the same way with creel surveys in lakes. They interview a specific number of anglers, conduct a fish count, and multiply it by how many boats are on the water at a given time to compute angler pressure. The size of the lake is also considered. Its really not a great indication of an actual count, but rather an educated guess based on a smaller sample size. The most important factor in the road side count is that they do it the exact same way every time, every August. So the variables they can control are controlled.

The most accurate count is to go scout the area you intend to hunt yourself. Or talk to people that live there.

 

[nater]

It's definitely a flawed survey. The other obvious shortcoming is that it's designed to give an approximate, relative abundance number across the landscape as a whole--it doesn't just focus on good habitat. So if <10% of a given county is in permanent grass, which is generally the case in Minnesota's pheasant range, you can basically expect the same percentage of each 25-mile route to be grass. Some of the routes literally have just 1-2 miles of grass cover adjacent to the road on the total length of the survey. So if someone drives down the road before the surveyor gets there and spooks the birds off the gravel, or if the 2-3 broods hanging out close to the road just aren't in the mood that day, it's easy to have an individual route where no birds are seen, even if you had excellent winter carryover, good nesting conditions, and subsequently high bird numbers on the quality habitat in that area.

I've often thought about setting up a "habitat only" route and running that year after year, since I think that might give a better idea for production on the places people actually hunt, and not just a generic landscape measure. In some counties that would take a lot of effort to string together though.

I'd also encourage you guys to read the actual report and not just look at the map. There is some valuable info beyond the graphic depiction of hot spots. The number of broods per hen, average chicks per brood, and median hatch date, for example, are really good indicators of nesting success, and are unaffected by many of the issues that have been brought up.

Any scientific survey, despite its flaws, is better than anecdotal observations from individuals to the tune of "I've never seen so many birds before!" or "sure seems like the chicks are small this year" etc. etc.. With the obvious caveat that if you drive by your favorite WMA/WPA at sunrise in August and see 40-50 birds in the road...that obviously means you'll see some there in the fall!