Moeller, I'm with you and am skeptical of reports. Most are very conservative to put on a positive spin so as to not turn away tourists. One of my brothers came along on my first two SD pheasant hunts. The first was a phenomenal year, the best I've ever seen it. The following year was a bad drought and the results in the area we hunt were catastrophic. But the reports were for great pheasant numbers. The year before we shot limits every day. That year we shot 10 roosters, between 3 guys in 4 days. The next year while planning for the trip out, the reports were good again and he didn't want any part of it. Has never been back. he's the baby of the family and spoiled, so you have to take what he says with a grain of salt. That trip was a lot of tough hunting, but I still enjoyed myself. Unfortunately for him, if he's not given a decent chance to shoot his limit, he's not going as it's too far and too expensive to be getting skunked.
Here in N WI, the local radio stations will not give a bad weather forecast in the summer for fear of turning away tourists. DNR in WI is horrible with their deer population forecasts. That's why I'm on this forum, to see what real people are seeing on the ground. That personal information is much better than something compiled in the office and published by a bureaucrat who never sees the field. Besides, even in really good years, there are local areas experiencing poor reproduction. So for me, I'll listen to the advice of you guys and the hell with the government.