Very well could be the firing pin itself, but I had zero issues with the same primers in the 2 3/4" box of super pheasant, and zero issues with the 20 or so other random loads I shot to verify operation; and 2 of the 4 rounds I tried to re-fire in a different gun did not go boom. That's why I'm leaning towards the ammo. But I'll fire off a Numrich order and replace the pin and spring to be safe.15 isnt cold enough to severely alter ammo performance in modern factory ammo. Once you get to -15 then you start having primer failures. All loads will be slow at cold temps, but you wont get a FTF at those temps.
Im guessing its a firing pin clearance issue due to metal shrinkage (or weak spring), and just was not smacking those hard Winchester primers good enough.