Usefulness of of Pheasant Forecast

Floyd

Member
I really question how accurate the Pheasant Forecast is. Last year a big drop in bird numbers was predicted, and we noticed no drop at all. This year a substantial increase was predicted, and we noticed a small drop in numbers.

We are two fairly experienced guys with three dogs on private land in the mid central part of the state. We are generally very successful despite any fluctuation in the population.

It was interesting to note how much hunter numbers dropped last year, and how much they rebounded this year (based on orange hats on dashboards and other orange clad groups in local restaurants). I'm presuming this effect is due to guys planning trips based on the forecast.
 
I have found it useful when hunting public land. On private land land like you have in the central part of pheasant country USA they most likely don't fluctuate that much numbers wise. Assuming it is good land for pheasants. However their hunting reports on their web site are usually two weeks late and a dollar short. Much like their fishing reports.
 
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There can be local weather events at just the wrong time that wipes out the majority of the population in a couple square-mile area. Heavy rains and flooding, no rain, hail, unseasonably cold and windy at the same time during the hatch. Scout around for bad looking crops or flooded field corners and you can get a good guess about the possibility of a local extinction event. Travel a couple miles and you are back in the birds.

The forecasts are done by multi-county areas and should be considered good for a general idea of what's in a multi-county sized piece of land. Not at all reliable for deciding on a single property but well worth it to consider going to a number of locations in an area.
 
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