Sd - 2018 brood survey
- Thread starter jonnyB
- Start date
It is important to note that the 47% increase looks big because it is based on a very small number from 2017. Still 20% lower than 2016 numbers (which was not a banner year) and 2018 is the 3rd lowest PPM number in the last 20+ years.
Not trying to be a pessimist - good to see the directional trend up. Just pointing out that we have a long way to go to get back to 'normal' SD populations.
It is interesting how the SE part of the state rebounded. That was an area where they were concerned with all the spring rain.
Not trying to be a pessimist - good to see the directional trend up. Just pointing out that we have a long way to go to get back to 'normal' SD populations.
It is interesting how the SE part of the state rebounded. That was an area where they were concerned with all the spring rain.
Roaniecowpony
Member
Good to hear it's reversed the downward trend. I haven't hunted SD in about 5 or 6 years, but it seemed to be declining overall, continually for the 20+ years I hunted the Huron area. The last time I hunted the area, it was pretty thin. But that was in a drought for the whole western 2/3rds of the country. I still have friends in the Huron area and may someday hunt it again.
A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
The report doesn't AT ALL say there's a jump in population. It simply says that they counted more pheasants per mile on the routes they surveyed during that time. The brood count survey report is AT BEST a vague indicator of what MIGHT be going on with the pheasant population. Yep, it's all some of you have to go on, but just know that it's nearly meaningless.
I think the historical data trends paint a picture that is a bit better than "vague".
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benelli-banger
Well-known member
I've been out there monthly since april...I talk to farmers out there weekly... this is a reflection of what's really happening...i watch the weather daily....mild winter, kind of a cool april/early may, pretty ideal summer, though N and NW had some dry, hot conditions mid-summer, if memory serves.... most intersting thing i saw were the increases in crp in many counties over the past decade...not all bad news in that department. Overall, i figured this was gonna be the outcome...i predicted 2.5 birds per mile statewide...2.47 was the actual, i think....no matter, much fun!!!!
Increased CRP acreage
Although weather, predators, and just about anything else does have an impact on pheasant numbers, there appears to be a direct and glaring correlation between habitat and the pheasant population. According to the figure 5. map in the Brood Report, the SE part of the state also collectively added more CRP acreage than any other part of the state and I don't think this is just happenstance. Overall, the state has lost 582,875 acres of CRP since 2007. Pheasant numbers have also been in decline since around that time. I know that some people are skeptics of the brood report numbers each year, but so far they have matched my experience each season.
Although weather, predators, and just about anything else does have an impact on pheasant numbers, there appears to be a direct and glaring correlation between habitat and the pheasant population. According to the figure 5. map in the Brood Report, the SE part of the state also collectively added more CRP acreage than any other part of the state and I don't think this is just happenstance. Overall, the state has lost 582,875 acres of CRP since 2007. Pheasant numbers have also been in decline since around that time. I know that some people are skeptics of the brood report numbers each year, but so far they have matched my experience each season.
A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
Sorry, I was too short & general above. I’ll admit that when I referred to the brood count report as “nearly meaningless”, that language was a bit strong. But it is at best a loose (vague) indicator of what’s going on with the bird populations….in the short term. There’s no doubt that the data clearly shows long-term correlations between the PPM and other variables, as shown by Woollybob’s awesome graphs, and as discussed here regarding CRP acres.
I have a spreadsheet showing historical data going back to 1996. (And now I’m inspired by Woollybob to add graphs!) Despite the noticeable long-term trends, I find it interesting how different the changes can be for any given year, say, comparing PPM to birds/hunter or adjusted preseason population. The annual percentage change in one is often much different than the change in another. In fact, in 6 of the last 22 years (27%), the percent change in one or both of birds/hunter and preseason population has been OPPOSITE the change in PPM. i.e.: positive vs negative. For example, 2015 saw a 41.8% increase in PPM, but a -1.2% decrease in birds/hunter. 2016 saw a 19.7% decrease in PPM, but a 6.5% increase in adjusted preseason population.
I hunt only public land & CREP/walk-ins. I hunt a lot (relatively), & I’ve hunted basically the same places for many years. NEVER have I reflected at the close of a season and thought the bird population on the whole in those areas had changed over 20-25%. But those are places where prime habitat is pretty much constant. This is why, in my opinion, the brood count report is not very useful in the short term, if an area has good cover year after year. (Granted, there are anomalies, like last year.) But take cover away & it’s a no-brainer. Birds will disappear & disappear fast.
I have a spreadsheet showing historical data going back to 1996. (And now I’m inspired by Woollybob to add graphs!) Despite the noticeable long-term trends, I find it interesting how different the changes can be for any given year, say, comparing PPM to birds/hunter or adjusted preseason population. The annual percentage change in one is often much different than the change in another. In fact, in 6 of the last 22 years (27%), the percent change in one or both of birds/hunter and preseason population has been OPPOSITE the change in PPM. i.e.: positive vs negative. For example, 2015 saw a 41.8% increase in PPM, but a -1.2% decrease in birds/hunter. 2016 saw a 19.7% decrease in PPM, but a 6.5% increase in adjusted preseason population.
I hunt only public land & CREP/walk-ins. I hunt a lot (relatively), & I’ve hunted basically the same places for many years. NEVER have I reflected at the close of a season and thought the bird population on the whole in those areas had changed over 20-25%. But those are places where prime habitat is pretty much constant. This is why, in my opinion, the brood count report is not very useful in the short term, if an area has good cover year after year. (Granted, there are anomalies, like last year.) But take cover away & it’s a no-brainer. Birds will disappear & disappear fast.
Roaniecowpony
Member
I do side with the overall skepticism about these SD brood surveys. I've read them for many years and watched our group go from full limits of over 30 hunters every day for 3 days in a row to less than a bird per hunter, over a 25 year period. This was in the area around Huron. Meanwhile, the state brood surveys have continued to paint a rosy picture, even going so far as to claim "best" ever counts on years it was clearly a dismal ghost of what it had been a couple decades earlier. I've never seen it better than those years in the 1980s when I first hunted SD. All my SD hunting has been on the same land over the years. There's a lot of variables, but I think the state methods of count leave a lot to be desired at the least and at worse, they may be influenced by the economics of the effect these brood surveys have on hunter tourism and the influx of money during the hunting season. Anyone else have a similar experience?
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benelli-banger
Well-known member
How does the habitat compare today vs 30, 20, 10 years ago? Public? Private? Hunting a similar amount of land that you used to? My experience is that the '90's were unparalleled, but 2003 was great, as were 2007-2011, but nothing like the '90's. If I was seeing a consistent decline I would change things up....I don't doubt the surveys, frankly...I usually am out there enough throughout the year, and watch the weather, and talk to enough farmers, that the survey results usually match up with reality. If gfp is lying in order to lure $ into sd then they would have made 2017 sound better...last year was about a 50% drop, i believe....this is like fishing...50 boats can go out on the same lake and come in at the end of the day with major variations in results...fish and pheasants both require habitat....harvesting them both requires knowing where they are going to be...excellent lakes routinely disappoint lots of fisherman! I am implying that all of SD is one big lake, btw. Hope you have a better season....oh, how about dog power? Similar to the good old days? Less dog power? I am not saying my dogs are any good, but I know guys whose dogs "make" birds!!! No kidding!!!
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The first time I hunted SD was 87 It was good, not much better than Iowa of similar time. After the 76-83 winters pheasants were down. in 89 I spent 3 weeks before thanksgiving in SD and it was good but spotty. I did not hunt SD 90-97, I was in MT and it was very good, come recent crp fields were as good as it gets 12 birds killed, in a significantly lesser amount of time than an hour. I moved to SD in 98 and hunted almost every weekday and half the weekends when I lived there until 04. I remember in 99. Hwy 90 this time of year looked like someone had thrown crates of small brown chickens off a truck there were so many dead birds. broods in the ditch were feet apart. Probably the peak of CRP. in 2000 and 2001 1/4 section fields in the counties next to the river held 500-1000 birds. We traveled from E. SD just to see them. you could shoot a two man limit almost at will in a couple of ours anywhere there was cover in eastern SD then. It will likely never be similar without serious tresspass fees in what time I have left to hunt. It's probably still good in spots always will be, but not like that. I have not hunted in SD in 3 years and know enough guys there to know it's not like it was and sadly might be awhile until it is. From 95-06 when her nose started to really go, I had a female lab that was relentless and certain death on a rooster or cripple. She had seen a lot.
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I too believe the surveys are pretty accurate and paint an overall picture of what is going on. I get out to SD several times of the year after the hunting season, and when friends say they are seeing birds and it's better than the previous year the report typically reflects that. Of course local weather plays a major impact. Last year my area was wiped out by 3 hail storms and this year the weather has been perfect. I will be out dove hunting over the weekend and will see first hand.
benelli-banger
Well-known member
Yeah, those clouds of birds were something!!! Unbelievable....seeing 1,000+ birds flush and move a bit and settle back down was common....but, it doesn't take much to really excite me....seeing a few dozen erupt from a few acre slough or food plot or tree belt still makes me act in ways that are hard to understand!!!!��
A5 Sweet 16
Well-known member
Yep, there's something about it. Just one pretty one busting out of a bent over pile of cattails & snow after Buzz decides "Yep, he's definitely in there" & barrels in after him boosts my heart rate & excitement level like nothing else. Can't wait.
This is my favorite graph for CRP vs. bird numbers. CRP going down and bird numbers bouncing around unrelated.
View attachment 8525
Pheasant populations different every 10mi and SD weather is very spotty. Hail is localized and in dry seasons a wet morning or light rain on just right 1-2 days saves a whole hatch in that neighborhood. Brood surveys are general population counts and not specific for the same place you hunt every year. Move around a lot all season and you will find they are accurate overall.
When you show up to hunt you find birds in CRP but that doesn't mean they were hatched and raised there. 75% do so in road ditches. Doesn't mean they over-winter there either; they are more often in sloughs when grass gets laid down or snow filled. CRP has more to do with farming economy and field hunting style preference than bird numbers. If that's you, go for it and good luck. Me, not so much and I'd rather not fiddle with economy and distort outcomes that have unintended consequences.
View attachment 8525
Pheasant populations different every 10mi and SD weather is very spotty. Hail is localized and in dry seasons a wet morning or light rain on just right 1-2 days saves a whole hatch in that neighborhood. Brood surveys are general population counts and not specific for the same place you hunt every year. Move around a lot all season and you will find they are accurate overall.
When you show up to hunt you find birds in CRP but that doesn't mean they were hatched and raised there. 75% do so in road ditches. Doesn't mean they over-winter there either; they are more often in sloughs when grass gets laid down or snow filled. CRP has more to do with farming economy and field hunting style preference than bird numbers. If that's you, go for it and good luck. Me, not so much and I'd rather not fiddle with economy and distort outcomes that have unintended consequences.
Uncle Buck
New member
Mike----Give me a call. I lost your cell phone #
Uncle Buck